When Arstrong quipped he thought he had a one in three­ chance of winning, I think he was being illustrative­ (ie less then evens!). Reading some of these postings­ is like getting inside the mind of Will­ Hunting.............do you know how easy this is for­ me???!!!

(oops, quite right jeffrwebb, I mean Armstrong rates a­ win as 25% likely - "3 to 1 chance" is 1 in 4­ probability which is 25%).

It's interesting that Armstrong says he's about­ as fit as in 2003. Armstrong and Bruyneel will have­ paid close attention to how his current power output,­ VO2, lactate threshold etc. compares with historic data­ from 2001 onwards. There's little else to­ benchmark with.
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So, assuming we'll be seeing­ a "2003 version of Lance" (c.6th in the­ prologue) and assuming the best rivals are at or­ slightly above Ullrich and Vinokourov standard, then we­ can see how Armstrong rates a 33% chance.

Actually Hinault is a Breton. Bretons do not have a­ reputation for being snooty, arrogant or rude - that is­ usually reserved for Parisiens and other French tourist­ hotspots. Hinault comes from simple farming stock and­ speaks his mind. Sad thing is, much of what he says is­ rather negative, although this doesn't make it­ untrue. Yes he's a bit of a dinosaur, but everyone­ is entitled to an opinion? As a multiple Giro, TdF,­ Vuelta, one-day monument winner - surely he's­ earned it? You don't have to agree with him.

3 to 1 odds is not the same as a one in three chance. ­ It's a one in four chance.

@ revo user: Of course they let Hinault on stage,­ it's the French! Typical Frenchman, snooty,­ arrogant, and downright rude. But I'm sure as­ someone got in his face, he'd turn tail and run,­ just like the French!

Floyd Landis-- hope you are training hard so we can­ talk about your odds of winning the TDF next year.­ First your odds on Leadville.

2 points actually...1) LA won the TDF 7 times. If­ Hinault, Merkcx, Indurain or even LeMond decided to­ return to racing when they were 38 they would have­ raised a huge stir as well. Cycling needs the big names­ to keep it alive OR a good rivalry which I really think­ cycling needs more than one big name. When will the­ next big duel between GC contenders will occur ?? 2007­ was great but nothing came of the competition for the­ next edition. I think the sport really needs 2 (or­ more) big riders to compete against each other for­ multiple years to capture the publics attention and­ deflect all the doping BS. Schleck Vs Gesink Vs­ Contador or something similar where they can shadow box­ all year and get down to it during the TDF and slug it­ out. Races like this years could lead to that I hope if­ all the old guys would bail and let the young guys suck­ up the publicity.

Why does cycling not need Lance Armstrong? So it doesnt­ need twice the funds, publicity, support, not to­ mention the outstanding results achieved by LA during­ his time competing. And of course this year, with­ raising the awareness of his cancer charity, lives may­ be saved. It is the press and the critics that keep­ using Lance's name in every article they write. All­ they want is to sell more papers, all LA wants is to­ keep cycling.

Even almost at 38 Armstrong will show who's the­ Boss. The motivation is completely different for the­ Tour de France in comparison to the other racings.

Hinault's comments are shameful. TDF organizers­ better not let that jerk be on any podium after each­ stage. The fact is, the TDF should be thanking­ Armstrong, because the TDF ratings in the US would be­ dismal were it not for Armstrong's­ participation.

It ought to be a great race -- the­ course is brutal. I don't think it's a­ coincidence that the organizers made Mont Ventoux the­ penultimate stage, a place where Armstrong has never­ won. If Armstrong makes it onto the final podium in­ Paris I think it would be a great accomplishment.

the wildcard is this: the peloton made a lot more­ money when LA was part of it. look at all the sponsors­ who have bailed since then and add up the total funds­ going to the euro teams...way below what it was. ­ therefore, LA is still the king of the peloton in that­ respect. how much press will the tour get this year in­ the US due to LA? tons...that equates to more money­ for all the riders. a bit of a conspiracy theory­ maybe, but we all know it's italian mafia run­ anyway haha.

Thank you, Ivan. Finally a quote from someone actually­ in the "know". And I am thinking the Tour­ odds makers should be giving you a serious look too.

2 days left

just heard now now charly Wegelius is going to the tour­ thomas dekker has been removed

So if you take 1 ex 7 time champion with a 1 in 3­ chance of winning, add in 179 other top cyclists, 3­ weeks of racing, (X)100 possible crashes, (X)1000 over­ zealous fans, motorbikes and cars, THEN factor in­ possible sickness, injury and loss of morale due to­ press and public comments....

I believe the is answer­ - 3 weeks of really cool racing.

Schools out for­ today...

Tomorrows lesson... Geography - Is the route­ 0.76 times better then last year??

Surely a domestique should have no chance of winning­ anyways as that is all Lance should be, unless Johann­ Brunyeel is telling porkies!!! If Contador is team­ leader and Levi Leipheimers performances mark him as­ team number 2, then Lance's job should be to­ protect them!!! Now I always loved Lance on the bike,­ his grit, determination and will to win aligned to­ remarkable physical endurance and the overiding battle­ against cancer marked him as someone special but that­ was then and his time has passed. If his motivation is­ to draw attention and raise funds for his charity then­ fair play, but it should not be at the expense of­ others or for any personal gratification!!! Therefore­ (imo) he should support his team-mates and although he­ will get plenty of attention and limelight, not put­ them in the shade!!! After all, considering his age,­ Contador could very well eclipse Armstrongs­ achievements!!!

Never mind this higher maths nonsense, who are the­ other three? I make it Menchov, Contador,­ Evans........oh thats one in four..........ohhhhh and­ Sastre of course..... and Schelck and the other­ Schleck............and Hinault