Tour de France - Armstrong's 'one in three' chance

Eurosport - Wed, 01 Jul 09:25:00 2009

Since his comeback in January Lance Armstrong has looked a shadow of the man who posted a record seven consecutive Tour victories and he seems unlikely to match his awe-inspiring prime on the roads of France this year.

CYCLING Lance Armstrong - 0

The 37-year-old American, who returned to competitive cycling with Astana three-and-a-half years after retiring, has appeared more human on the bike and could benefit from this to win the hearts of the French fans.

The ultimate winning machine in his heyday, Armstrong has had a strained relationship with the country of his greatest triumphs.

"I hope he will not be there. Is he afraid of France? Nobody forced him to come, he only has to stay at home. He cannot win the Tour. I hope (Alberto) Contador gives him a beating," Frenchman and five-times Tour winner Bernard Hinault was quoted as saying by Le Parisien last month.

Armstrong, who fought testicular cancer before dominating the Tour from 1999 to 2005, has had more lows than highs since returning to racing in January at the Tour Down Under.

Having never been sidelined with a crash-related injury before 2005, the Texan came off his bike three times in a few months, most notably during the first stage of March's Tour of Castilla y Leon, when he broke his collarbone.

Armstrong recovered in time to take part in his first Giro d'Italia in May where he was targeting a stage win.

He failed in that but managed a creditable 12th place overall, although his 53rd in the Giro's final time trial showed the American was not ready to hammer the competition as he used to.

Instead, Armstrong had to be content with victory at the unheralded Nevada City Classic last month for his first professional win since his comeback.

Things have changed since Armstrong's last appearance in the Tour four years ago and he will not lead his team, instead working for Spaniard Alberto Contador, the 2007 winner and favourite for the title.

However, Armstrong is confident he can again do well in the Tour, which starts on Saturday in Monaco.

"In 2001, 2004 and 2005, when I came I was sure I would win," he told French radio station Europe 1.

"I don't have the same confidence now but I am about as fit as in 2003, when it was a very tight Tour. Let's say I have a three-to-one chance to win."

Italian rider Ivan Basso is convinced the American can pull off a surprise.

"He will ride the Tour like no one else because he has the experience of seven Tour de France wins," he said. "He will go like a beast."

Reuters

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  1. Comment hidden due to its low rating. Show

    1 in 3 chance of winning. So in order to beat the other­ two chances I guess he needs 1. everyone to do really­ badly from the other teams
    2. Contador to fall horrible­ ill or maybe get knocked off his bike by a over zealous­ fan.
    Could you even imagine if one of his domsetics had­ said that he had a good shot of winning the tour while­ raiding for Lance. He wouldnt of even been allowed to­ start. This guy has no class. He all about himself and­ to hell with everyone else

    From Liam L, on Wed 1 Jul 2:00PM

  2. Hinault should be silenced. He can't say those­ things about Armstrong...

    From pedro_martins9497, on Wed 1 Jul 1:54PM

  3. Hi garethmccarroll,

    We are in agreement.­ Goatscheesewhiff and myself were debating the "one­ in three" inaccuracy contained within the­ Eurosport headline (which is where the 33% comes­ from).

    Have a nice day,

    FL, 41st overall - Nature­ Valley Grand Prix.

    From floydlandis, on Wed 1 Jul 1:47PM

  4. winluney01 - you may be from the UK, but you are­ obviously not FROM the uk...

    From stusto37, on Wed 1 Jul 1:46PM

  5. 3 to 1 the betting term means you win 3 for every 1 you­ bet!!! he doesn't say 1 in 3 which implies a­ 33.333333% chance of winning. he said 3 to 1 which­ means for every chance of winning (1) he has 3 chances­ of losing!!! therefore if we take the combined number­ as a total equalling 100% (4) then he is giving himself­ a 25% chance of winning!!!

    From Gareth, on Wed 1 Jul 1:32PM

  6. Hi Goatscheesewhiff - I am afraid that your logic is­ positively false.

    One in three means that there is one­ chance of success and two of failure, i.e. 2/1­ (33%)

    Best Regards,

    FL, TDF winner 2006

    From floydlandis, on Wed 1 Jul 12:51PM

  7. goatscheeseswift. floydlandis is high as a kite, maths­ in his reality is not the same as for rest of us. that­ and floyd always was a tw4t

    From veloboy22, on Wed 1 Jul 11:54AM

  8. @floydlandis How did you work that one out?! Your­ maths seem to be as bad as your namesake's covert­ doping skills... One in three = three-to-one. One in­ two = two-to-one, ie 50 per cent chance. Surely?

    From , on Wed 1 Jul 11:44AM

  9. I don't think Hinault likes anyone - he's­ constantly moaning about French riders being lazy,­ rider's radios being divisive, wine being corked­ etc etc. Some of what he says is true, but he­ certainly has no future as a diplomat! As for­ Armstrong, there's always the prospect of a­ surprise, but this is a 3-week stage race and­ there's nowhere to hide. At his age, recovery will­ be a big issue and not sure he has the­ acceleration/change of pace to go with the explosive­ climbers, such as Schleck, Contador........or even­ Sastre. He seems to have a Turbo Diesel engine now,­ where as before he was a finely tuned V6 petrol!

    From pedro118118, on Wed 1 Jul 11:08AM

  10. i cant believe berhard hinault made those comments.­ does he dislike armstrong so much

    From ralph, on Wed 1 Jul 10:34AM

  11. Dave H: If you think this sport has no credibility then­ why bother reading cycling news? Some of us enjoy it­ and think that the positive tests only exist to make­ the sport fairer. You can't remove the cheats­ without finding them.

    From loriblack18, on Wed 1 Jul 10:23AM

  12. Please note that your headline is not correct because­ Lance says that he has a "three-to-one chance to­ win" whereas you state that he has a "one in­ three" chance which equates to 2/1 - not 3/1. Hope­ this helps.

    From floydlandis, on Wed 1 Jul 10:14AM
  13. Comment hidden due to its low rating. Show

    a sport with no credibility what so ever, you are­ waiting for this years drug abuse cases and until­ everyone is tested before during and after then who­ cares !

    From Dave H, on Wed 1 Jul 9:42AM
  14. Comment hidden due to its low rating. Show

    i could beat him now!! Barming wheelers RULE!!!!

    From jon, on Wed 1 Jul 9:23AM

  15. I Think we will have a more interesting tour with lance­ riding, He is the greatest TOUR - FRANCE RIDER ever.is­ record will take some beating.

    From powermouse, on Wed 1 Jul 9:16AM
  16. Comment hidden due to its low rating. Show

    It is Lance in the picture?

    From Hunor, on Wed 1 Jul 9:12AM
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