Tour de France - Contador leads Tour contenders

Eurosport - Fri, 03 Jul 15:46:00 2009

Eurosport-Yahoo!'s Michael FitzGerald assesses the chances of those aiming to win the Tour de France.

CYCLING 2009 Tour d'Italie Alberto Contador - 0

Last year, the Tour de France's status as the most prestigious bike race in the world was placed under threat, with the Giro d'Italia arguably offering a more complete line-up of the world's best riders. Lance Armstrong even described it as "a bit of a joke".

No such worries for Tour organisers this year, as all of Astana's big guns are back in action, including Armstrong himself. With him comes mainly positive, and certainly much needed, media attention.

But does the Texan still have what it takes to "kick the asses" of the competition, as he vowed?

Alberto Contador (Esp, Astana) ****

Generally recognised as the best pure climber in the world, and certainly the most explosive, he is the only man in the field to have won all three Grand Tours. More ominously for the competition, his time-trialling has improved immensely over the past two years, confirmed by his second- and fifth-place finishes in the two ITTs at the Dauphiné Libéré, along with his win in the Spanish time-trial championships less than a fortnight ago. He will be helped by a superbly strong team in the team time-trial in stage four. With Armstrong also gunning for the yellow jersey, the leadership of the team remains a cloudy issue, though Contador remains the big favourite to take the 'maillot jaune' in Paris

Andy Schleck (Lux, Saxo Bank) ****

After bursting onto the scene with a superb second place at the Giro d'Italia in 2007, many tipped the younger of the Schleck brothers for Tour glory last year. A bad day on Hautacam put paid to his chances in the general classification, though he came roaring back with some superb performances in the Alps to take the white jersey. Though still only 24, Schleck has matured greatly in the past year, and if he can avoid another bad day, he has the ability in the mountains to give Contador a real run for his money.

Lance Armstrong (USA, Astana) ***

In the past, the trouble with the hype and suspense in the lead up to Tour de France was the overriding feeling that Armstrong would invariably win, and invariably by destroying his opponents both on mountain-top finishes as well as in the time-trials. This year, nobody knows quite what to expect from him. A 12th-place finish in the Giro d'Italia just a few weeks after breaking his collarbone indicated that Armstrong is certainly a contender, but the fact that he never rode the Giro in any of his Tour-winning years, together with his absence from the Dauphiné last month, means it is still difficult to judge his form. He will be strong in the time-trials, but will he be able to live with Contador on the steep slopes of Andorra-Arcalis and Mont Ventoux?

Cadel Evans (Aus, Silence-Lotto) ***

With Contador, Leipheimer and Armstrong missing last year, the stage seemed set for the consistent Aussie with the squeaky voice to finally throw the accusations of "wheelsucker" straight back at his critics. Instead, when in a glorious position to capture the yellow jersey, Evans allowed Sastre to escape on the Alpe d'Huez - and the rest is history. The relatively weak Silence-Lotto squad, rocked recently by the loss of Thomas Dekker, are likely to lose upwards of a minute to Astana in the TTT, and the suspicion remains that if Evans was unable to beat Contador two years ago, then he won't this year either.

Denis Menchov (Rus, Rabobank) **

Not since Marco Pantani in 1998 has anyone won the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France in the same year, and had Jan Ullrich remembered to eat and wear a rainjacket before ascending Les Deux Alpes, we might have had to go back even further. Though strong in time-trials and going up mountains, his bike-handling skills leave a lot to be desired, and he could yet again lose valuable time on descents. A podium finish at best for the big Russian.

Carlos Sastre (Esp, Cervélo) **

The amiable and modest Sastre has shown his superb climbing ability down the years, and his attack on Alpe d'Huez last year deservedly won him the race. Sastre had a slow start to the season, but showed his class once again in the Giro in May, prevailing on the gruelling climbs of Monte Petrano and Vesuvius. He will, however, lose time in all three time-trials to Armstrong, Contador and probably Andy Schleck, making a repeat success unlikely.

Christian Vande Velde (USA, Garmin) *

Vande Velde's fall in the Giro d'Italia cut short his preparation time for the Tour, and it is difficult to see him improving upon his fourth-place finish last year. Though he is expected to perform well in the time-trials, and his Garmin team could challenge for a stage win in the TTT, he is unlikely to be able to stay with the pure climbers in the high mountains.

Frank Schleck (Lux, Saxo Bank) *

A horrible fall in the Amstel Gold Race caused many to think that his Tour hopes and indeed his entire season might be over, but he emerged with a straightforward concussion. He showed he was back on form in June by winning his home race, the Tour of Luxembourg. Though part of a well-managed and experienced Saxo Bank team, he may well be upstaged by younger brother Andy. Whichever of the two performs best in the Pyrenees will determine who is leader, but Frank's likely losses against Astana's stars as well as Evans and Menchov mean a podium finish is his best hope.

Other contenders: Kim Kirchen (Lux, Columbia), Roman Kreuziger (Cze, Liquigas), Levi Leipheimer (USA, Astana), Vincenzo Nibali (Ita, Liquigas), Michael Rogers (Aus, Columbia)

TDF LIVE at 2.30pm on Saturday on British Eurosport (Sky 410 / Virgin Media 521); Also available on your PC via the Eurosport Player - click on the link under the picture to subscribe

Michael FitzGerald / Eurosport

Comment 1 - 8 of 8

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  1. Carlos Sastre will lose time in the TT to ANdy­ Shlek!!!!! I'm redy to bet with any of the­ commentators that Sastre takes one minute to Andy in­ the seconde TT

    From lubvezenkov, on Fri 3 Jul 11:56AM
  2. hahah this is very emotional analysis. Even if they are­ finally right. Menchov, Cadel and Sastre must be better­ placed than Shlek. And what is this shake argument­ about no one being able to win the Giro and the Tour in­ one year. It wasn't Menchov's problem that he­ won the Giro.

    From lubvezenkov, on Fri 3 Jul 11:53AM
  3. Come on! Andy Schleck has 4 stars?!? - Who are you­ kidding? Please I don't even have him for a top 10­ finish.

    The champion (Sastre) is only a 2 star, and­ the rider with the best form (Menchov) is a two star­ too. - Non sense!

    It is obvious that a myth around­ Lance is created but I wouldn't like to be in those­ peoples place when he'll be 2, 3 or more minutes­ down the hill of the contenders group. By doing bad he­ will drag at least one other strong Astana GC­ contender, most probably Levi. This will leave Alberto­ with Zubeldia and I just don't think that will be­ enough.

    Trust me - best chance to win the Tour have­ riders that have a whole team behind them - Sastre,­ Menchov and Evans. Looking at last years Tour when a­ slip took Menchov the win (I think it was on the Alp d­ Huez when Menchov made the decisive attack and NO ONE­ could pair him up but he slipped) and this years Giro­ (when Menchov didn't let Di Luca take more than a­ couple of seconds on extreme climbs and Sastre having­ no problem getting to a 1/2 minute in front of the­ contenders on the really tough mountain top finishes)­ makes me comfortable to say that Menchov, Sastre and­ Evans have place in the top 5 and say it the prognosis­
    1. Menchov 2. Evans 3. Sastre

    going down
    4. Vande­ Velde 5. Contador 6. Nibali 7. Kirchen 8. Gesink 9.­ Astarloza 10. Leipheimer

    From Trifun, on Fri 3 Jul 10:47AM
  4. Andy isnt good enough in TTs and he hasnt got the­ experience others have. Evans can follow along time but­ he isnt strong enough in the mountains and isnt so­ explosive as Contador Sastre or Menchov.Sastre and­ Menchov rode the Giro ,but i think still that those two­ the contenders are behind Contador .

    From dido22610, on Fri 3 Jul 7:58AM
  5. I don't get how Andy Schleck is put in the second­ position. He is not strong enough to be a podium­ finisher this year. I think that Denis Menchov has a­ good chance to win the race because Astana has got too­ many leaders this year - no one out of them will win­ TDF. It is Menchov or Evans.

    From veksleri, on Thu 2 Jul 10:50PM
  6. 1 day left

    From bobcha78, on Thu 2 Jul 10:42PM
  7. Chris, esq., in Las Vegas!!

    From Chris, on Thu 2 Jul 10:09PM
  8. First!!!! Let the drama begin!!!!!! I've got­ Valverde and Basso as podium finishers, errrrr in the­ Vuelta!

    From Chris, on Thu 2 Jul 10:08PM
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