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2pts win Halcon Genelardais in Scottish Grand National at 8/1 (Sportingbet). | In fine form, loves a test, 5lb pull with main rival Miko De Beauchene. |
Halcon Genelardais: His presence affects the race enormously as only the top three are in the handicap proper. Was a fine fourth to Denman in the Gold Cup and that followed on from a sterling effort in the Welsh National when he was narrowly beaten by Miko De Beauchene despite carrying top weight. He has the biggest burden by far again but that may not stop him going close.
Miko De Beauchene: Improved considerably this season and beat above rival in Welsh National before landing the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock off 9lbs higher. Raised a further 9lbs since and finished second in Pertemps Final (hurdles) at Cheltenham Festival on latest start. In fine fettle and a major player.
Opera Mundi: The final horse carrying their correct weight and a very interesting contender stepped up in trip to four miles for the first time. Handles the conditions, has top connections (Nicholls/Walsh) and likely to run a big race.
Old Benny: Won the 'four-miler' at the Cheltenham Festival and raised 11lbs for that win. Only seven years old and improving so the hike in the weights may not stop him and only 2lbs out of the handicap. Handles soft conditions.
Patsy Hall: Travelled sweetly in William Trophy at Cheltenham but weakened up the hill so there stamina reservations (pulled up in Irish National only other start over marathon trip).
Wild Cane Ridge: Won all four starts at this track in a bumper, a hurdle and two chases. Likes to make all and though that will be difficult in this field over this trip could well get into a good rhythm from the front. Loves soft ground, though this is his first attempt at the trip.
Mon Mome: Well beaten in the Grand National but finished the course and half a stone drop in the weights might've given him a chance were he not racing 6lbs out of the handicap. Stays three-and-a-half miles.
Kilbeggan Blade: Tom George stable in good form as this horse has been throughout the winter. Since his Sandown win in December his best efforts have been over hurdles though - he has disappointed on his last two chase starts which suggests he will struggle off his current mark especially being 6lbs out of the handicap.
Flintoff: Pulled up three times this season but can put in the odd good performance. Well beaten sixth in the Irish National wasn't neccessarily one of them but his one-length second to Miko De Beauchene at Haydock when 66/1 certainly was. Jockey's allowance means he almost races off his correct weight and this dour stayer has each-way claims if he is on a going day.
Openide: Second in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival but pulled up on only start over three-and-a-half miles when possibly not handling the soft ground at Fairyhouse.
Philson Run: Eider Chase winner two years ago so we know he stays but is 12-years-old now and disappointed last two starts (made mistakes before being brought down at Haydock, unseated rider in Grand National).
Tommy Spar: Enjoys fast ground, not certain to stay, fell at Aintree latest. Readily opposed.
Ossmoses: Went close over hurdles on only try at the track over a year ago, but only one run since when sixth in a chase at Newbury raises concerns.
Irish Wolf: Has run well at Ayr but that was in a hurdle on fast ground - his ideal ground conditions. Pulled up the last twice and lots to prove here.
Leading Man: Trainer Ferdy Murphy has an excellent record in the race which bodes well for Leading Man's chances. Handles soft and appreciated step up to four miles when an encouraging third at Doncaster last time. One of the better chances out of those racing outside of the handicap.
Noir Et Vert: Another Murphy horse and this one made an excellent comeback at Cheltenham when fourth in the Kim Muir. Excels on faster ground and the conditions look to have gone against him here.
Dunbrody Miller: Capable over long trips in testing conditions but well beaten on both attempts at this trip and yet to show anything like his old form this season.
Royal Rosa: Useful hurdler who hasn't lived up to expectations over fences. Fifth in Eider Chase over this trip last time was better but still well beaten and hard to fancy here.
Azulejo: Fair form in France but shown little on any start so far in England and impossible to fancy.
Model Son: 17th in this race two years ago and will struggle to improve on that in this renewal. Hasn't won since 2005.
Another Rum: Third in this race in 2005 but shown nothing in last two renewals. Has gone well around here twice in heavy conditions this year and could well plod on into contention for a place at a huge price.
Iris De Balme: Stays well and handles soft ground but 7lb claimer helps little when you are almost two stone out of the handicap.
Strong Resolve: Seventh in this race last year but regressed this season since Kelso win and hard to see him having a say.
In The Loop: Unexposed Irish raider who beat Dun Doire and Point Barrow off level weights at Down Royal in March. Over two stone out of the handicap but very much an unknown quantity and not without an each-way chance at a big price.
Verdict: Not as competitive as it usually is with only three horses in the handicap. In The Loop and Flintoff look the two most likely to go well for each-way backers from out of the handicap but for win purposes it makes sense to concentrate on the top four. HALCON GENELARDAIS positively revels in lumping big weights around extreme distances and can reverse Welsh National form with Miko de Beauchene. He gets a 5lb pull at the weights with that rival and that could prove to be enough, with stablemate Old Benny his biggest danger.
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