BETTING BOX
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2pts win Miko De Beauchene in Scottish National at best morning price. | In fine fettle and can confirm Welsh National form with main rival. |
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2pts win Nahoodh in Dubai Duty Free at best morning price. | Proven winner at this level will appreciate the step up in trip. |
Ayr
The interesting thing about the Coral Scottish Grand National is that so few horses in the field are racing off their correct handicap weight, the only three being Halcon Generlardais, Miko De Beauchene and Opera Mundi.
Every other horse in the field is actually carrying a bit more than the handicapper thinks it should - even Old Benny is carrying bottom weight of 10 stone when his long handicap mark is 9-12.
That makes it a little less competitive than a Scottish National would normally be. Having said that it's going to be difficult to carry a big weight in the likely ground conditions, and Halcon Genelardais carrying 11-12 will need to put in a supreme performance to carry that weight and win.
He put in a terrific effort under the same burden in the Welsh National when going down to Miko De Beauchene and he is a high class horse. He wasn't disgraced when fourth in the Gold Cup as I don't think Cheltenham suits him ideally and he does get a few pounds pull with Miko De Beauchene for their running in the Welsh National.
I think every pound will count here and Miko De Beauchene gets 16 from Halcon Generlardais. Bearing that in mind Miko De Beauchene may well confirm the placings.
Miko De Beauchene has won again since when beating Flintioff, who has got a very tough task against him at the weights here, and then was a fine second over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival.
He's got to be a leading contender. After just four runs this season he'll still be pretty fresh and has an obvious chance.
Old Benny is very interesting. Winner of the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival he is a horse that stays forever. Ground conditions will be softer here but he has won on heavy going in the past.
His stamina will probably come into play in the closing stages. There is a line of form though through Over The Creek, who chased him home at Cheltenham, to Miko De Beauchene and Halcon Genelardais. Over The Creek was third in the Welsh National and that line of form suggests Old Benny has got a bit to do with the top two.
One more I'd like to mention is Noir Et Vert despite him being badly wrong in the weights. He is trained by Ferdy Murphy who has an excellent record in this race having won it three times in recent years.
Noir Et Vert has a very good success rate too. He's won five of his last 10 starts and he was making his seasonal reappearance when fourth behind High Chimes at Cheltenham, a race in which Openide was second.
He was entitled to need that run as it was his first since winning at Punchestown this time last year.He looks to me as if he has been trained for this race and he stays very well. There is just a slight question mark about the ground and whether it would be too soft for him but I still expect a bold show.
All in all, the safest bet, and the horse I'd like to see win is Miko De Beauchene of Robert and Sally Alner's.
Newbury
We've already had some fascinating Classic trials at Newmarket this week with Infallible so impressive in the Nell Gwyn and that teriffic battle between Twice Over and Raven's Pass in the Craven, and we could be in for some more clues at Newbury.
In the Dubai Duty Free, perhaps better known as the Fred Darling, Muthabara, who has been well backed for the 1000 Guineas defends her unbeaten record of two starts.
This is a step up in class for her as her Sandown win was in listed company, whereas Nahoodh has already won at Group Two level having won the Lowther Stakes at York last season. She's up in distance here from six furlongs to seven but I think she should stay and give Muthabara plenty to think about.
There are a couple of interesting others including Annie Skates who is held in high regard, Michita for the in-form John Gosden and Savannah Poppy trained by Michael Bell.
The Greenham has attracted a slightly smaller field as only eight runners go to post. Confront, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is the interesting one with regard to the 2000 Guineas.
He beat Stimulation, this week's European Free Handicap winner, on his second start last season so that form looks like it is stacking up.
He looks a promising colt and is a son of Nayef who has made a very promising start to his stallion career.
Peter Chapple-Hyam runs Shallal who won a maiden at Glorious Goodwood last summer so this is clearly a step up in class.
Gimcrack winner Sir Gerry steps up in distance and two others I also like are Beacon Lodge and Paco Boy, who impressed many people when coming from off the pace to win on his reappearance at Lingfield.
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