Eurosport - Tue, 23 Jun 20:03:00 2009
This week, Europe's favourite cycling blog pedlar evaluates the teams of the Tour de France's big three.
Bjarne Riis's Saxo Bank are the latest outfit to announce their nine-man armoury for the fast-approaching Grande Boucle - and it looks like a veritable Tour de Force.
Whippet brothers Frank (pictured, left) and Andy Schleck (pictured, right) top the billing and will be determined to better their respective sixth and 12th places in last year's race.
Frank recently won the Tour of Luxembourg but a nasty knee complaint could mean his more talented younger brother, winner of this year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege (and Fleche Wallonne if Davide Rebellin is eventually discounted), will emerge the natural team leader as the three weeks progress.
Much has been said about the pitfalls of spreading your eggs in different baskets - and for Saxo Bank, you can also read Astana - but it would be wrong to assume (like one Eurosport reader) that the Tour cannot be won without having a distinct team leader from the outset.
Yes, it didn't work in the days of Telecom/T-Mobile, but BS seems to remember Carlos Sastre doing ok in last year's race - and his credentials from within CSC were not set in stone until that attack on Alpe d'Huez.
But this Saxo Bank team is about so much more than topping the podium in Paris. In Fabian Cancellara they have one of the favourites to win the Monaco prologue and wear the first yellow jersey of the race.
Jens Voigt, Kurt-Asle Arvesen and Stuart O'Grady are all breakaway specialists, the latter still possessing a kick that could propel him to the line in a bunch sprint if Mark Cavendish is having an off day (or has decided to call it a day so he can focus on the world championships).
Rookies Chris Anker Sorensen and Gustav Larsson will be making their Tour debuts but both are very strong, raw talents - one a climbing specialist and the other a wizard against the clock - while old hand Nicki Sorensen will provide experience and level-headedness. (Does the Sorensens' lack of blood ties deny Saxo the chance of being the first team in history to boast two sets of brothers?)
It's a great, robust team which gels together well and should put up a decent fight on many fronts.
But on paper, Rabobank beats Saxo Bank for togetherness and single-minded vision (one for all and all for Denis Menchov), while Astana beats it for individual flair.
Much has been said of Astana, some claiming that it is the best collection of nine riders in the Tour's history. Heck, there was one point when BS was going to wager an all-Astana podium come 26th July.
Certainly, a team including Lance Armstrong, Alberto Contador, Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, Yaroslav Popovych and Haimar Zubeldia is a mouth-watering prospect: all have finished in the top 10 of the Tour before, while the first four have made the podium (and share eight victories between them).
With just one Kazakh rider in the remaining seven on the shortlist for the final three berths, perhaps the most telling thing about the squad is its distinctive un-Kazakh flavour - an indictment of the Alexandre Vinokourov-founded nationalist vehicle aimed at promoting cycling in Kazakhstan.
But a decision - BS is sure you'll agree - that certainly makes the squad stronger. It remains to be seen if the sponsors demand the inclusion of Dmitriy Muravyev. It also remains to be seen how the dynamic unfolds within the team.
Will Armstrong ride for Contador or will he form an American-based alliance with Leipheimer in which communication is carried out solely through Twitter? (This will be a veritable three-way if Chris Horner joins the roster.)
Both Popovych and Zubeldia had torrid Tours last year, and while Popo's focus has returned and is now reunited with Armstrong, Zubeldia only has experience in the orange of Euskaltel.
Still, Astana should have at least one rider on the podium and BS is confident that he will win his one-dollar bet with reader David Pointon to this effect.
Which leaves Rabobank. A team of Stef Clement, Juan Antonio Flecha, Oscar Freire, Juan Manuel Garate, Robert Gesink, Grischa Niermann, Joost Posthuma, Laurens ten Dam and Menchov does not perhaps have the oomph to make little Tommy Voeckler wet his Lycra shorts, but it is a solid, collective unit in which there will be perfect harmony and no mind-games.
It is for this reason that Rabobank could well be the most settled going into the race. Now all they need is for Menchov to pick up where he left the Giro and continue believing he is the great rider that he is.
ALSO RANS: Reigning champion Carlos Sastre will head a strong Cervelo Test Team, but he will find himself in an outfit with eyes on stage wins from sprinters Thor Hushovd and Heinrich Haussler.
Australia's Cadel Evans is perhaps the most unfortunate of the main contenders, his 2009 season hitting a large snag when Bernhard Kohl's deceitful world came crashing in.
Polka-dot jersey Kohl had signed for Silence-Lotto and looked set to be Evans's perfect foil in the mountains and his absence (together with Popovych's departure) means the twice runner-up will have to do it all alone yet again.
Meanwhile, Kohl has retired from the sport and has been lined up to assume the role of Droopy in the forthcoming Disney film about the anthropomorphic basset hound.
Returning to Evans, the 32-year-old narrowly avoided a training crash just 200m from his home after riding over a pot-hole this week. The incident reminded him "that a lot of luck is involved just to start the Tour".
BS feels Evans's concern: way back when he was just 15, BS was thrown from his saddle at top speed by a malevolent pot-hole. His left hip punctured the skin and the grit-peppered wound was so wide it couldn't be stitched together. To this day he pretends it was a surfing/shark-assisted accident.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "He will ride the Tour like no one else because he has the experience of seven Tour de France wins. He will go like a beast." Ivan Basso tells Cyclingnews he thinks Lance Armstrong is a bit of monster.
NEXT WEEK: BS will provide his definitive preview for the 2009 Tour de France so get in your requests/suggestions/observations below. Alternatively, track down BS on Twitter: www.twitter.com/saddleblaze
Comment 2 - 21 of 21
Di Luca isn't even riding the TdF this year is he - I don't think is LPR team have been invited? And even if he was, I think he'd do well to finish in the top 10.
cyclecrank70 Armstrong cant win TDF2009, he is not in top class form, that is sure, but Contador is ready for this. Contador is not for nothing let Giro09 to go by, if he dosent know that he is the first rider in Astana. They all (Armstrong and Levi) got a chance in Giro and done nothing, the only rider who could win grand tour in Astana is Contador. If they not wannt to win TDF, then give Armstrong a chance, what for is need a good team, if first rider of the team cant alone drive last 5km on the mauntins, not one day, maybe 6 or 7 days. Armstrong not deserve to be first rider of Astana for TDF, maybe for Vuelta09, Contador is a first rider and he is in on top of form in cariere and he not deserve that, he could gone in any team and be first rider
Im afraid Evans is really not up to challenging Contador et al for the TdF. He will probably be in the top5, but not no 1.
Astana will decide who wins, in my opinion. And if he feels up to it, that means Armstrong will decide it will be him. This is business. Sorry Contador...
Cyclecrank co uk
I think Contador would win TDF2009, and only rider who could beat him is Evans if he on TT put some 3 or 4 minutes advantage. But i think that is not impossible, because Alberto is improve his TT skills. Everything except a win of Contador this year is suprise, he is a supreeme lord of mountains. Nobody cant drive cycle like AC on the climbs 15% or more
leandr0_77 my opinion is that Di Luca can not finish top10 in the the TDF. He can take a stage or two. But the level of competition is higher. The time specialist will take him 3 min on the time trials. And he can lose a lot of time on climbs like Ventoux because they are very different from Giro d'Italia climbs
I think people of over-estimating Evans's superiority over Contador in the TT, assuming that AC will loose large chunks of time - not so. In the context of a Grand Tour, I don't think there's much in it. In the mountains, however, it will be a different story and it'll be the usual pattern of Evans hanging on for grim death.
Correction: If Bernhard Kohl hadn't taken CERA then Silence would have never signed him because he would have been a nobody! Di Luca wouldn't have stood a chance... The Italians rarely do in the Tour. It's too far away from mama.
I really hope Contador gets pushed hard by the likes of Sastre, Cadel, Mechov & co. If so this could be an explosive tour but I still expect AC to come out on top. Its a shame Di Luca isnt racing as I reckon he could challenge.
from the dauphine,we know that Cadel Evans beat Alberto Contador in time trial,,that a good sign for him,but i wondering will he be able to display the same performance in dauphine towards tdf,.with astana have AC,LA,LL,Popo,Zulbedia and Andreas Kloeden and strong Saxo Bank(Schlecks) team,with Menchov and Castre also compete in this year tdf,surely this will be hard for cadel evans,Silence-Lotto didnt have strong domestique to support him at the mountain stages,.if Bernard Kohl did'nt take CERA,he will be the super domestique for Evans,poor him,,
It will be an exciting Tour. Changing the subject: Ah! How I wish Vinokourov, Ullrich and Basso had beeen able to line-up for the 2006 Tour! That would hav been a hell of a spectacle! :) Rock Racing should sign them all up and make a run for it! Ha ha! Fantasy cycling!
evans can win tdf if he is going to ride like we saw in dauphine,all he has to do is go with contador everytime alberto attacks,if evans can stay with him in mountains,he can make some time in TT for sure...i do believe astana will ride for contador coz he s going to be in top form judging from dauphine,leipheimer doesnt have ability to gain time in mountains and i dont believe LA will go for victory,but top 10 is very possible for him...sastre as always will loose time in TT and he seems to always have one day off when he loose like minute or so,schlecks are too weak in TT to win GC,we ll see if menchov can peak again after great giro,di luca and contador are the same type of riders,they attack a lot...gesink was good in dauphine but hes too young and needs improve his TT...i think those are the main contenders,i put my money on contador to win it overall,with evans second and menchov third
Agreed - I would be v surprised if Contador doesn't win, but then again you can't legislate for bad luck and depends on how the team dynamic evolves (ie will the team ride for Contador). The ITT course in Monaco uses part of the Grand Prix course (the section by the marina), the main bulk of it is in and around the hills set back from the concrete jungle, but will still be pretty spectacular I think.
Evans will be ok, but he won't win it. Maybe take third. Armstrong may be better than many think - Basso could be right, experience counts for everything in the TdF. But I still think the race is Contador's to lose. Does anyone know if the ITT course in Monaco is the same as the Grand Prix circuit? That would be cool...
Most traditional fans like to see do-or-die attacks and riders ride themselves to the brink of collapse in an effort to win the Tour. Sadly, Cadel doesn't fit this image and is viewed as a wheelsucker. Likewise, Armstrong didn't fit this model as he never seemed to 'suffer' enough. Cycling has become far more tactical/calculating - the impact of earpieces/radios has been significant. I think Evans knows his limitations and rides his own race in the hope others blow up and he can take advantage - very low risk and therefore, very boring to watch. The likes of Schlecks, Sastre, Valverde, Contador are prepared to lose a race to win one and there in lies the difference. I can't remember ever seeing Evans blow and lose significant chunks (ie minutes) of time. Frankly I don't think any cycling fan will remember Evans once he's retired, which is perhaps a shame given he is certainly a 'tryer'.
Something will go wrong for Menchov at some point in the race even if he has managed to hold and improve on his form, Evans is up the creek without a paddle once again and not convinced that Andy Schleck can time trial well enough. Reckon it might just be Astana's for the taking. Going to be an exciting tour!
Hmm, I take your point about Cadel as clearly the Tour means a lot to him as evidenced by his tearful acceptance of the Maillot last year, and I guess it is tough to finish runner-up so often, but then the Tour has always done that - just look at Poulidor. Cadel has a long way to go to reach the kind of unfortunate bad luck that he had, but Poulidor is universally loved by Tour fans because he was a nice guy who knew that finishing second in the world's toughest sporting event is still a massive achievement. Poulidor will probably be remembered long after Cadel has been forgotten, unless Cadel changes his approach.
As for the comparisons with Mig, I hadn't heard that but I can't see it - Evans style of racing is dull beyond belief. If he manages to turn it around and become a pleasant and exciting Tour rider, then fair play to him. I'd be happy to see him win if that happens, all the more so because he will have taken a long look at himself and made appropriate changes - and it takes real courage to do that. But at the moment I just think that he doesn't really help the sport's image and I would prefer him not to win.
The good thing about this year's TdF is it will kick off from day one. The TT course in Monaco is hard enough to create some genuine time gaps and the GC contenders can apply pressure from the off. Personally, I'm starting to feel sorry for Cadel. Yes I know he's boaring to watch, has no style on the bike, is whiny and abnoxious at times, but he has finished on the podium of the Tour with prescious little support and that has to count for something. That said, it would be a disaster if he won.
I reckon Menchov has got a great chance of winning. He trained hard for the Giro this year, but the Tour was always his main target. Maybe he suffered in the past from a lack of confidence but he certainly won't be lacking that after winning the maglia rosa. And yet he's 16/1 to win - madness
@ jamesdalby360. agreed. also, evans is simply a prat under pressure. in his "normal" interviews he appears level headed, calm and a genuine nice guy. (which he probably is) but under the microscope/frying pan of the tdf he cracks! he becomes intolerable & possesses an ugly streak! as proved last yr, not forgetting the amount of supporters consistently shifting their opinion. (from ok to mr. prat)
comparatively evans may not have the strongest team, but c'mon, stop with the team bashing... this yr he certainly has a very good team. not the best but they r focused & dedicated. 1 objective (which must count for smt) supporting cadal. he is a quality rider with a v good team. he is gonna get his @ss kicked but like or loath him, he should be on the podium again this year. talented & will get A LOT of help from this apparent "impotent" team?... question is, when will he stop playing the 5 on 1 excuse, or the 3 on 1 card? he says an "indurain tactic" suits him best. well i say indurain took MINS out of his opposition in a TT! also (opposing what many pundits accept) when big mig had an opportunity, he attacked and usually succeeded! flat/mnts/tt stgs. no diff he made every sec count. big mig was an aggressive and calculating winner. cadal & his mangers still need to work out when/where to attack let alone when to chase! (which they do quite well, but not good enough.) cadal you have a long way to go before you claim the same MIG tactics? carlos "beat" you last yr in the tdf, bertie the yr before. if anything, they have improved their tt skills... how much have you? once a whiner, always a whiner...
Evans is screwed.
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