BETTING BOX
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1pt Youmzain at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Dubai Sheema Classic. | Class act who should be even better this year. |
Curlin is favourite for Saturday's Dubai World Cup and he is a horse who will take an enormous amount of beating.
He is a champion in America, winning one leg of their Triple Crown and running a tremendous race for one so inexperienced in the Kentucky Derby too.
He won the Preakness but it was his victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic at a sloppy Monmouth Park that marks him out as the one to beat here.
Conditions will be very different on Saturday but he's already been out in Dubai for over a month and won his prep race in good style and in a fast time.
The vibes surrounding him are very positive and he is a very imposing individual. On the formbook he is head and shoulders above the others.
Jalil was the most expensively-bought horse in the world at one stage at over $9million and while disappointing in the UK, has been transformed by the switch to dirt in Dubai.
He has won his last three starts, improving on each occasion, and while he recorded a faster time than Curlin on his last start, Richard Hills tells me the ground conditions were a tad faster on the day the Godolphin horse won.
Two months ago it would have been inconceivable that Jalil would have been second favourite for the World Cup but he has surprised nearly everybody.
However he needs to find considerable improvement again to shake-up the favourite.
It has to be Curlin for me although Vermilion, fourth last year, could run well. Asiatic Boy has had a slightly chequered preparation having been beaten last time out but is talented.
However the most interesting horse among the rest is arguably the Godolphin second string Happy Boy.
He was top class in Brazil and was a really taking winner earlier in the Carnival after which he was bought by Sheikh Mohammed.
He was very highly regarded in his homeland and could be anything but Curlin deserves his position way out at the head of the market.
Elsewhere on the card I do like Youmzain in the Dubai Sheema Classic.
It is clearly very early days for his campaign but he ran a tremendous race to finish second to Dylan Thomas in the Arc last year.
He is well-travelled and has shown he can handle covering long distances and still run big races. He lacks a recent run but connections have been very pleased with his preparations.
Youmzain shapes like he is going to get better and stronger as he gets older and he is capable of running a very big race.
If he runs his best race he is quite capable of winning too.
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