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    Will Gray

    Strong start counts

    Brawn's title hopes may have taken a wobble in the middle of the season - but history shows their strong start ensured they were destined to secure the crown.

    The former Honda squad hit the ground running this year, collecting a large pocket full of points to create a buffer for the rest of the season and although Red Bull hit back, promising for a while that they would develop a strong title fight, it looks like Brawn is going to hold on to the top spot.

    But that was always on the cards because history shows that if a team is in front early in the year it is unlikely they are going to drop the ball.

    Only twice in the last 14 years has a team led after four races and then lost the crown. Likewise, only twice has the team that led after six races gone on to miss out on the title. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a season when the team that led the championship after both four and six races actually lost the title by the end of the year.

    That year Ferrari had a consistent if unspectacular start to the year, winning just one of the first six races but taking seven podiums from their two cars. Benetton, which went on to win the title, had taken three wins from the opening three races through Michael Schumacher but his team-mate Johnny Herbert was not performing well.

    By the end of the season, however, the Briton had got up to speed and contributed 45 of Benetton's 137-point haul while Ferrari slumped to third after securing just 32 points in the final 11 races.

    This year, Brawn stacked up an impressive amount of points in the opening four races - taking 79 percent of the available 63 points - while Red Bull managed just 44 percent. Brawn continued to go from strength to strength and with two one-two finishes in races five and six they increased their scoring rate to 87 per cent while Red Bull still sat on 43 per cent.

    By race six, Brawn had scored an incredible 86 points from a possible 99 - a tally that, in the modern era of scoring (introduced in 2003), has only once been bettered. That was by Ferrari when, during their dominant 2004 season, they clocked up 88 points from the opening six races, with five wins and three one-twos. If this year's Malaysian race had counted for full points, Brawn would have beaten even that.

    That 2004 season saw Ferrari maintain their early scoring pace throughout the year, finishing with a 14.5 point per race season-long average seeing them end on a record-breaking total of 262.

    Counting Malaysia as a 'half race' Brawn averaged 14 points per race in the first four events and 16 points per race in the opening six but it is unusual for a team to be able to keep up this level of scoring - and Brawn are no exception.

    Every season, even without the level of rule changes seen this year, teams will develop secret innovations over the winter that gain them an early advantage and the rest will ultimately develop their own version of that solution (if it works on their car) to close the gap and even out the field.

    This year, the effect has been more pronounced as the new regulations put top teams such as Ferrari and McLaren out of the picture early on, only for their strong resources to allow them to bounce back in the latter part of the year. In the opening six races McLaren and Ferrari together scored only 30 points but in the six races before F1 left Europe for the season-ending fly-aways they managed 76 points between them.

     After the final European round in Italy, where Brawn all but cemented their constructors' championship, their scoring average had dropped to 8.5 in the four races that had just been run, including their Monza one-two.

    This scoring rate reduction will mean that although they scored one of the highest season-opening tallies ever, they are likely to end on around 180 points - the third lowest title-winning points haul of the modern scoring era.

    But as has almost always been the case, the early season buffer ensured Brawn had no need to maintain that scoring average.

    About Will Gray

    Award-winning sports journalist Will Gray has worked in and around Formula One for more than a decade, providing detailed technical insight as well as live news reports and features for newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph and Daily Star, AFP and Reuters news agencies and a variety of magazines. He has also worked as an F1 expert on TalkSPORT and Irish radio.

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