Graham Thorpe

Cardiff Test holds the key

Mon Jul 06 12:42PM

The first Ashes Test at Cardiff will represent the key match because it sets the tone for the entire series, and making a fast start cannot be underestimated.

Historically, Ashes series are remembered for events which happened in the first Test, and even key incidents are recalled more prominently than others.

For example, when Steve Harmison fired a huge wide down the leg side in the 2006/07 series in Australia, it exemplified England's ragged performances from that point on.

Equally, in 2005 Harmison struck Justin Langer with a real corker and that really shook the Australia side up.

The England team to play in Cardiff picks itself in my opinion and, with the pitch there expected to turn, it looked to be a straight toss-up between Adil Rashid and Monty Panesar for the second spinner slot.

I would definitely pick two spinners to play at Cardiff, and Graeme Swann is a shoo-in after his tremendous winter and start to the summer in an England shirt.

Clearly, with Rashid being left out of the 13-man squad, it therefore suggests to me that Monty is a dead-cert to play in the match.

It would be unfortunate for Graham Onions to be left out after his tremendous performances against West Indies, but if you are to be a successful Test side you need to have flexibility.

In that department England look to have more adaptability than Australia, with just Nathan Hauritz as a frontline spinner who could cause trouble but is not as good as Swann in my opinion.

I have always believed that if Cardiff plays as everyone predicts it will, then Panesar is your man.

The Northants left-armer is often criticised for his lack of variations, but if the conditions are conducive to him, his consistency will bear fruit.

Rashid would have represented a huge gamble for the selectors, and it is in those types of decisions that Ashes series are won and lost.

However, this was not the time for Geoff Miller and his fellow selectors to be brave, because Panesar should be perfectly suited to Cardiff and has more experience.

If England edges the spin department, then I think the seam bowlers on either side are pretty much evenly split, in terms of both class and experience.

The Australia selectors will be sweating over their bowling attack, but for me it is pretty obvious who they should pick.

If Brett Lee's place was in any doubt, which it clearly was in the opinions of some people, then he has dispelled any notions of him being left out with his five-for against England Lions.

Lee is a class act and will thrive in the heat of an Ashes battle. His experience will count for a lot, especially if he is joined by the relatively inexperienced Peter Siddle and Hauritz.

Australia's batting line up, however, looks to have significantly more depth to it than England's.

The one saving grace for Andrew Strauss (pictured) is that if Andrew Flintoff comes in at seven, the lower order looks slightly better than it could have done otherwise.

If you are being brutally honest though, Flintoff has not been consistent with the bat for a very long time now and beyond him there is very little to trouble Australia.

The only problem with picking two spinners is having Panesar and James Anderson propping up the tail, which is not ideal, especially when you compare it to their opposite numbers.

Mitchell Johnson, apart from being probably Australia's most potent threat with the ball, as he proved recently against South Africa, is also a very handy batsman.

Brett Lee is no mug with a bat in his hand, and neither is Stuart Clark, so Australia definitely have the edge over their hosts in the lower order.

It is crucial that England win the toss and bat first in my opinion. When England beat Australia at Edgbaston in 2005, it was a brave opening stand by Marcus Trescothick and Strauss which put them in a solid position after Ricky Ponting put them in to bat.

As the pitch wears, England's two spinners - if the selectors go that way - will be able to extract more turn, while Strauss will look an assertive and commanding captain by taking the initiative.

The team which outscores the other in the first innings have a massive advantage because that would give them control over proceedings, and they can then dominate the match.

If England go and score 400 plus in their first innings, that will enable their bowlers time to work on Australia's batsmen.

I do not go along with the view that England may have lost momentum since their convincing 2-0 Test-series win over West Indies earlier in the summer because of the World Twenty20.

The furore and enthusiasm which will surround the Ashes series in this country will give the players all the encouragement and positivity they need.

The Twenty20 format will not have any bearing whatsoever on the series and both sides will be fully prepared.

This Ashes series is sure to be as intriguing as ever, and it will be a very close one, with the two teams very evenly matched.

If I was picking both sides for the first Ashes Test at Cardiff, they would be:

England: Andrew Strauss (Capt), Alastair Cook, Ravi Bopara, Kevin Pietersen, Paul Collingwood, Matt Prior (WK), Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, James Anderson, Monty Panesar

Australia: Ricky Ponting (Capt), Simon Katich, Phillip Hughes, Michael Hussey, Michael Clarke, Brad Haddin, Marcus North, Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee, Stuart Clark, Peter Siddle

First Ashes Test prediction: England to win.

My Ashes Test series prediction: England to win the series 2-1.

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