Fantasy Premier League

The Week Ahead

Thu Apr 17 04:30PM by Neal Thurman

Fulham's Brian McBride celebrates after scoring the opening goal of the game

The fantasy season has two really difficult stretches.  The first of these is the beginning of the campaign and the difficulty comes in due to the fact that clubs are working in new players and none of us really have much of a sense - beyond some obvious candidates - who is going to start, who is going to produce, and who is going to disappoint.  Fantasy managers pull out a lot of hair when the prized new acquisition (purchased on the cheap in the fantasy game) starts out on the bench as he "learns the English game."

We are firmly in the middle of that second difficult stretch.  The close of the season - most teams know how they are going to finish and no one knows for sure what the agenda is.  Do you want to finish strong with your strongest team and maximize the amount of prize money and momentum that you bring into the summer and the start of next year?  Do you want to evaluate younger and/or fringe players for spots in next year's squad? Do you want to rest the cornerstones of your team so they don't pick up a longterm injury in a relatively meaningless match?  Do you want to keep pushing forward to reassure the base of supporters that the team is putting forth maximum effort in return for the money that those supporters are spending to come down to the stadium.   As you might imagine, predicting which of these paths a particular club is going to go down on any given week is not the easiest task in the world.  If you'd been on the other end of Jeremy's IMs when he discovered that Lampard and Hilario weren't starting against Wigan on Monday - you'd get the idea.

Why do I mention this?  It is meant to underscore the value of certainty that your players will actually play when you build your team.  This means looking for situations where clubs still have something to play for and/or where the club doesn't have other options at a specific position.  As I mentioned last week, the alternative is to find specific players who have something to play for but as I look back on those suggestions, the one thing that those players can't control is whether they are selected to play (see Crouch, Peter).

So, who fits the bill?  Fulham, Bolton, Birmingham, Reading, and Pompey.  Chelsea and Everton would both be in this category as well but since neither has a match this coming week, we'll ignore them for the purposes of this discussion.

Throw in the fact that West Ham has Derby at home and is likely to want to use this as a chance to build some momentum, you have your list of teams that you should be looking to choose from.  Of the rest, Liverpool is the biggest worry having very little to play for in the Prem (having essentially secured their Champions League place with Everton's draw against Brum last weekend) and having a big Champions League date with Chelsea next week.

Hard to say what ManYoo will do in this spot.  It will depend a lot on the outcome of today's match.  If Chelsea win and are only two points back, you have to figure ManYoo will put a close-to-full-strength squad out against Rovers.  If Chelsea don't secure full points, then ManYoo probably rests CRon, Rooney, and Rio and hopes that the rest of the group is good enough to win anyway.

So, with all that thought process out of the way, here goes...

Strikers
McBride, McFadden, Zarate, Ashton, Sears, Walcott, Bendtner, Babel, and Defoe. 

If Chelsea wins today, then look to Rooney as a premium-priced striker.  He's due for one of his crazy 2 goal, an assist, and a bunch of shots on target type of performances.

Midfielders
Not too much to love here...Kranjcar, Dempsey, Davies (S. Davies from FUL, that is), Downing, Nani, Mullins, Parker, and Muntari.

Defenders
Steinsson, MTaylor, Paintsil, McCartney, Ridgewell, Spector, and Murphy (David, from Brum).

Keepers
At 5.15, you have to like Lehmann unless Almunia completely recovers and is thrown back into the mix.  Otherwise, at the really cheap end of things, Schwarzer is the only other particularly interesting option (and that goes against the theory of betting on teams that have something to play for).  If you can get your budget there, Robert Green is probably the next best bet going against a Derby squad who just can't have much left in the tank after a draining season of frustration topped off by the destruction at home to Villa last weekend.

(28 user comments)

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User comments

  • (1)

    Any idea what Wenger will do with his squad? Will he rest Adebayor, Fabs, Hleb? Or go for it and try to prove something?

    Posted by: chefteddy1972 on Thu Apr 17 04:51PM | Report abuse
  • (2)

    I wouldn't sell Ronaldo just yet. Even if Chelsea lose or draw, I think Ferguson likes the idea of Cron having a special season. CRon has played in every game this season, except for the last CL game. Even if Christiano comes in as a sub, he can earn half his value. CRon is at 39 games this season for ManU in all competitions. Last year, he played in 49 games for ManU. Looks like the same pace. I don't expect him to miss a lot of time going forward. Maybe after he gets 30 goals.

    Posted by: gentrykirby on Thu Apr 17 05:02PM | Report abuse
  • (3)

    Crouch was actually injured - nothing about Rafa rotating him.

    Posted by: mflat437 on Thu Apr 17 05:18PM | Report abuse
  • (4)

    "Arsène Wenger will wait on the fitness of Manuel Almunia before deciding his squad for the weekend game with Reading." from Arsenal.com

    Posted by: goeasy27 on Thu Apr 17 05:19PM | Report abuse
  • (5)

    any thoughts on villa? im sure a lot of people still have barry/carson at a big discount.

    Posted by: joshtottenham on Thu Apr 17 05:23PM | Report abuse
  • (6)

    Neal...if I am correct in that your team is Denny Crane FC, then you have romped up the Beat The Bloggers #1 table in this second half of the season. Good arrows sir. I on the other hand have been tres terrible! Still I am leading my private group by over 100 :)

    Posted by: rwcollino on Thu Apr 17 05:29PM | Report abuse
  • (7)

    Re 5 - I picked up SPetrov on the basis that MON was pleased with his recent performances and he bagged me a goal. I'm wondering if its worth keeping him @ +1.9 or looking elsewhere

    Posted by: rwcollino on Thu Apr 17 05:31PM | Report abuse
  • (8)

    I have torres and gerrard @fulham I'm rethinking as I also have jcole and cron; I can't afford to have ALL my mid-fielders and a premium striker being benched for later games or not having a game at all [in coles case]. Gerrard Fab maybe? Then upgrade to Kranjcar elsewhere... although if I was going to bet on a Portsmouth players it would be Defoe rather then one of their middies... Lots to think about.

    Posted by: fansarigt on Thu Apr 17 05:47PM | Report abuse
  • (9)

    Well I've ditched Torres for the first time since his injury in October... Agree with Neal that Liverpool should be avoided at all costs now. Arsenal look like a good bet at home to Reading. Going to give West Ham a miss against Derby, though. Of every team in the Premiership I reckon the hammers are the most likely to not turn up against a relegated team.

    Posted by: peterransom on Thu Apr 17 06:58PM | Report abuse
  • (10)

    Jeremy or Neal.....i would like know if Sears is available....i tried to pick him up couple weeks ago during the barn door watch when he made his first start and goal in the premiership or am i not looking thoroughly....but anyways you guys are great, love this blog.....cheers

    Posted by: socrpimp747 on Thu Apr 17 11:15PM | Report abuse