Fantasy Premier League

The Week Ahead

Thu Dec 21 04:11PM

I apologize for the post being a little on the late side but the build-up to the holidays have been a little crazy around my office (believe it or not, I actually do have a day job).  What a great time of year coming up...lots of matches, lots of food, lots of drink, and even a little time off from work.  Who could ask for more? 

Think I'm in a particularly good mood?  It isn't just all the stuff above but also that I FINALLY feel like got just about everything right last week and made a bit of an impact in the standings.  Martins, Berbatov, Saha, Gerrard, Ronaldo, BFAY, Dyer, Clichy, Heinze, THud, and Kirkland - who would have guessed that Keiron Dyer would be part of a good answer?  I still have some work to do to catch Jeremy but at least things are headed in the right direction...

OK, enough patting myself on the back.  I really liked the suggestion from the comments section to focus more by position than by team.  We'll try out this new format for the holidays and I'll let you guys comment on how well you like it. 

First, some general comments on match-ups...

You have to like the presents that that Arsenal, Liverpool, and Pompey received from the schedule-makers this Christmas season.  Wigan, on the other hand, are paying for the deal they made with the devil last season to stay up with a roster of people no one has ever heard of - they get ManYoo and Chelsea for Christmas.  Of the top half of the table teams, Villa get ManYoo and Spurs which doesn't lead to much optimism and Reading have Chelsea and Everton which means that their two matches aren't going to be worth quite as much as some other team's two matches.  Finally, if you're looking for home/away advantage, there really isn't a definitive one - everyone has one of each.

Boro have Charlton and Everton but given how bad Boro has been recently, you have to wonder if that helps or not.  I guess anyone who gets to play CHA has to be considered fortunate as they continue to give Christmas gifts to their opponents all year 'round.

Given all of that, here's how things break down by position...

Strikers

We broke things down by "tiers" last week and that seemed to be a useful form of analysis for people so I'll do the same thing here:

Top Tier

Berbatov - He isn't overly expensive, he's been on a tear, the  match-ups are decent, and he's very likely to start both matches;

Martins - see, Berbatov 

Saha - yes, he's expensive but he's been consistently effective all year which makes him worth the money

Defoe - with Keane still out, he's going to play and he's been pretty good - the price is a little more than I'd want to pay for him but still an excellent bet.

Drogba - doesn't seem to matter who CHE is playing - he's been worth the price.

Kanu - Great match-ups, reasonable price, what else needs to be said?

2nd Tier

RvP and K2 - Both have excellent match-ups and would be top tier choices if you were confident that both were going to start both matches but the way Arsene has been rotating you get the feeling that one or both will get some rest at some point this week.

Kuyt - Great match-ups but while he's been effective for Liverpool on the pitch the last few weeks, the results haven't been there for fantasy managers.  Therefore, he represents some risk.

Bellamy - He's been hot but between the possibility of him being rested and him being Bellamy, you always have to take him with a grain of salt.

Doyle - Quickly becoming a blog favorite, he's been a little quiet but he's had a strong season - the match-up w/ Chelsea is the big reason he's not first tier.

Rooney - Expensive and very up and down - plus, he hasn't seen red in a while and, well, 'tis the season for that color.

The Bargains

The only super-cheap striker that I'd consider is Angel but you'd REALLY have to want the money elsewhere...in the fairly cheap category you have to like Zamora and Hulse as West Ham and Sheffield United have been playing better.

Midfielders

Top Tier

The top tier is made up of the obvious choices (Lampard, Gerrard, and Ronaldo) plus some consistent producers (BFAY, BFDB).  The more interesting conversation comes after that. You should probably have at least one of the first group and one or both of the 2nd group.

The more interesting conversation is around the second tier which is inhabited by...

2nd Tier

Andy Reid - hard to call any match-up "good" for CHA but he's been pretty good even though he has cooled slightly from his peak about a month ago.  He may also have some injury issues if asked to play a fulltime role.

Stewart Downing - not his greatest year but he's quietly started producing.  I know Jeremy is trying to justify including him.  Tough call between Downing, Reid, and some 3rd strikers.  If you're going to do it, this week is a good one given the match-ups.

James Harper - the guy has been hot, hard to tell if he just took longer to adjust to the Prem than some of his teammates or if this is just one of those streaks that happens.  The match-ups aren't great but the price is good and Reading has occasionally surprised against quality opposition.

Gilberto Silva - Arsenal's match-ups are good and he seems to have found a nose for goal in the absence of TH.  At sub-8.00, you have to at least think about him.

The Bargains

Dyer, Geremi (assuming he continues to play right back), and even though he's dead to me I think it might be about time Paul Scholes scored a goal in the Prem and he's actually cheap enough (7.36) that it might be worth thinking about if you're looking for a cheapie.

Defenders

Top Tier

More so than every other position, the defenders most likely to produce points are obvious from their prices.  This week you have to like Matty Taylor, THud, Eboue, Clichy, Finnan, Glen Johnson, Noe Pamarot, and Riise from that top group with some consideration given to central defenders Carragher, Campbell, and Toure.  Of these, only Johnson and Pamarot are even remotely affordable if you're adding someone to your team now.

2nd Tier

Given Chelsea's struggles recently (relatively speaking, of course, you have to downgrade their defenders - even more so if Terry hasn't recovered, they looked TERRIBLE without him vs. Everton).  If you could sell Boularouz short on the stock market at central defender, you should.

The Bargains

Heinze and Dawson are the two best bets in the lower price tiers - not much below 6.00 to be had this week.  I guess we have to wait for the transfer window to bring in some fresh blood.

Goalkeepers

Always an easy category to analyze because a) there aren't very many and b) their performances are so tied to their team's chances of winning and losing.

Top Tier

Reina, Lehmann, and James are the best bets and are all moderately priced.

The Bargains

Those looking for a bargain should run screaming from Chris Kirkland into the arms of Antti Niemi.  One benefit of Yahoo being slow to post the points from Monday is that Niemi is still available at a rock bottom price.  Act now, supplies may be limited.

And with that, I'll wish you an excellent Christmas season.  May you choose wisely and enjoy the long weekend.  (Not sure why I'm giving this message now since I'll be posting tomorrow but there it is anyway).

Cheers - Neal

 

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