Fantasy Premier League

Thu Oct 26 01:15AM by Neal

What a fourth round of Carling Cup action.  Sure, it has no real bearing on the fantasy season other than the odd injury here or there (you paying attention RvP fans?) but wow, was it fun.  From Crewe taking holders Manchester United to the brink of penalties to Charlton resembling an actual football team to West Ham continuing their tailspin it was an action packed mid-week card.

MGP went off with an injury in a development that has to worry managers who were hoping to have him in the squad against the struggling Hammers.  You have to assume that Heinze won't be playing on the weekend after going the entire 120 in his first action after a long layoff.  Throw in the fact that he didn't look particularly impressive and the match-up (@BOL) and it's probably another week before he's a realistic candidate.  Mido continued his strong form leaving one to wonder if early season blog favorite Berbatov will see the pitch again soon.  Chelsea's midfield selection questions become even more pronounced as Robben continued his strong form and Joe Cole returned to the line-up with a goal.  Finally, K2 went off early and will apparently miss roughly the next three weeks for Arsenal meaning van Persie is almost a guaranteed starter for that period.

On to the preview...

Chelsea
You have to think Chelsea will be licking their lips at the prospect of playing Sheffield United even though it's on the road.  Fantasy managers should be loading up.  Drogba, Sheva, Lampard, Ashley Cole, and Cudicini/Hilario are almost must-haves if you can afford them.  Ballack is in the same category given his (still) low price.  I went ahead and bought Robben at the end of last weekend before his price went up and I'll be hoping that he can keep his place in the starting XI after two excellent runs on the trot.  If you have the money, Terry wouldn't be a bad idea either.

The Race for the Champions League
Rampant Arsenal host what is becoming an inconsistant Everton squad leaving fantasy managers wondering what to expect.  Everton have been keeping the score low on their travels so you have to think that Arsenal will be somewhat less impressive than they were in dismantling Reading last weekend.  I'm down on Henry this weekend given the opportunity cost of having him in your line-up (probably means you DON'T have many of the Chelsea guys most likely to make an impact).  Hoyte is still relatively inexpensive and a reasonable bet for a clean sheet.  You have to think that Rosicky and Hleb will revert to their previous form given better opposition and I'm thinking it's worth waiting a week for the West Ham match to bring in Van Persie.

Manchester United travel to the Reebok for what is bound to be an ugly match where Bolton - behind the recently stunning Jussi Jaaskelainen - will attempt to slow things down in midfield and slog out a 1-0 win.  This tactic may serve them well in the real table but it doesn't help the fantasy value of either his players or those of the opposition.  With Ole having gone 120 you have to expect that Saha and Rooney will get the start and go the distance.  Giggs and Ronaldo are the only other two worth considering but for the price, I'm not inclined to recommend any of the above unless you're willing to bet against the match-up (never a great bet unless you really have a strong feeling).  That said, I'm not particularly inclined to recommend any of the Wanderers either - they're fantasy poison and a visit from the Red Devils isn't likely to turn that around.

(Note 1: Liverpool, Spurs and West Ham have been thrown out of this category until they get their respective acts together)

Against The Relegation Zone
(Note 2: We're going to welcome West Ham and Charlton to this category because, well, they stink (that brings us to Sheffield United, Watford, Charlton, and the Hammers). We've already discussed Sheffield United so on to the rest.

Watford host Spurs who may well be on the verge of a recovery from their early-season woes.  Beating Pompey and West Ham and drawing with Villa doesn't exactly make them hot but it's a start and Watford aren't exactly the second coming of The Invincibles.  Fantasy Managers should be considering Assou-Ekotto and Huddlestone (playing in midfield) in defence and Defoe in the attack.  It probably goes without saying that you should have BFAY (that's Blog Favorite Ashley Young) in your line-up every week - he had 13.5 points last weekend when it looked like Watford hadn't done a thing in the attacking half.  Once it becomes clear who Spurs will play at striker (Defoe and Mido are the hot hands) you should consider them as well.

Newcastle host struggling Charlton as both come off Carling Cup wins.  If it looks like Rossi will hold his place after scoring the winner against Pompey then he is an excellent value at striker.  If not, then Martins/Ameobi aren't exactly cost-effective options.  Solano is another one to consider if you like this match-up.  Darren Bent is also a good bet against a generally poor Magpies defence.

Finally, Blackburn travel to Upton Park for a crack at the Hammers who couldn't hold a lead against League One Chesterfield.  In my mind, this puts Rovers on the short list (with Spurs and Chelsea) as hot prospects for the week.  I've been on the Bentley bandwagon for about a month and that continues this week.  As stated above, if MGP returns to health before this match, he is an even better bet despite a disappointing-from-a-fantasy-standpoint season so far.  If MGP is out, you might want to consider Sergio Peter who filled in nicely a few times last season.

And The Rest
Wigan travel to Fulham in a match-up of teams that tend to spread the fantasy points around when they actually come through with any at all...maybe you might consider Claus Jensen but even though he has done some great things for my team over the years, I'd have a hard time getting excited about him at his current price...Liverpool host Aston Villa at Anfield in a match-up that seems destined to be a 1-1 draw.  No one in the Liverpool squad is in particularly fine fantasy form AND they're playing a grind-it-out team in Villa there aren't too many exciting options.  With Agathe incorrectly being classified as a midfielder and Agbonlahor incorrectly classified as a forward, there isn't much to choose from on the Villa side either...Finally, Reading journey to Fratton Park at the end of a brutal stretch that has included Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool since the end of September.  The fantasy value of this match will depend on who dictates tempo - Pompey's tendency toward the 1-0 snooze-fest or Reading's tendency toward the 4-3 thriller...if you think it's going to be the former, then Sol Campbell and Glen Johnson are your guys...if you think it's the latter, then Doyle and Seol are your guys (but not at the expense of Sheva and Drogba)

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