Fantasy Premier League

Thu Dec 20 05:46PM by Neal Thurman

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My apologies for the lateness of the post, 'tis the season for holiday parties and I've been knee deep in them which has been great but not left a ton of time for blogging.  Better late than never though...

A lot has been written about the less-than-stellar play on display on Showdown Sunday last weekend.  I'll add my two cents.  Certainly there is no case to be made for either match being a work of art but I have to say I was on the edge of my seat throughout based on the consequences of the matches.  The fact that the Premier League can deliver approximately 5 straight hours of must-see viewing on one day is impressive.  I know a reasonable amount about most of the major soccer league in the world as well as all of the US-based professional and college sports and the only parallel I can think of is Final Four Saturday in college basketball.  The drama and the passion take center stage - regardless of the quality on display its a worthwhile way to spend the day.  Is my view at all colored by the fact that Arsenal won?  Probably.  But I was much happier having invested time in watching those two "ugly" matches than the time I spent watching Ful/NUFC on Saturday.  The only minor drawback for me was the fact that Chelsea weren't at full strength - it would have been much more satisfying to get that result with Drogba present and Terry able to go the full 90.

One more editorial comment before we get to the match-ups this coming week.  Nery Castillo is good.  For those of you wondering why anyone would go back to the well for a Mexican striker after Jared Borgetti stunk up the Reebok, there is a good reason.  Probably not relevant that he's not really Mexican (he's a Mexican-naturalized Uruguayan) but worth mentioning (if someone said "Sven just bought a Uruguayan striker" you'd probably give him the benefit of the doubt after he picked up Elano and MPetrov over the summer).  I don't know when he'll join up or what the schedule looks like but start thinking about him as a cheap option up front.

OK, enough rambling...on to the main event.  The Christmas season brings with it the difficulty of trying to figure out how to select players when they have 2 match-ups per week AND stand a decent chance of being rotated given the crowded schedule.  The teams with the best 2-game match-ups are Birmingham (@BOL, MID); West Ham (@MID, RED), NUFC (DER, @WIG), and Liverpool (POR, @DER).  If I had any confidence in Newcastle coming up big in matches they SHOULD dominate, I'd be overwhelming in my endorsement of picking up every Magpie that you can find/afford.  My confidence in NUFC meeting expectations is not high so I value each of the above teams about equally when it comes to the value of their match-ups for next week.

As I mentioned in last week's Barn Door Watch, there are plenty of teams like Everton who have one attractive match-up (BOL) and one not-so-attractive match-up (@ManYoo).  Certainly nothing wrong with taking guys from these teams so long as you understand that there is the potential for them to be shut down in one of the two matches.  Finally, for those new to the Christmas schedule in the Premier League, everyone gets one home match and one away match so no need to spend a ton of time pouring over the schedule trying to figure out if anyone has two attractive home matches.

On to the actual players...

Strikers
Martins turned out to be somewhat useless last weekend but he seems to be the first choice guy for a NUFC team that SHOULD score some goals this week.  He's a streaky scorer so you have to hope that he hits early against Derby - if he does, he could go on a Santa Cruz-like run over Christmas.

Other good choices to hit a rich vein of form and present managers with a great Christmas present are Cameron Jerome (another bust last weekend but with reasonable potential to get it into gear this week), Dean Ashton, and Fernando Torres. 

I don't give Boro much chance of putting up a lot of points in the standings but Tuncay Sanli continues to be hot and it isn't like WHU and Birmingham are Top 4 teams so he's worth a look.

Tevez (and ManYoo in general) fall into the one tough match-up (Everton) and one no-so (@SUN) but given his recent form, you can't argue against his value.

Finally, for those of you who watched the Arsenal/Chelsea match last weekend, you will have noticed that RvP is back with a vengance.  He was great for the brief time he was on.  With Spurs' pourous defence first up over the holidays, you have to like his chances of a big holiday haul. 

Midfielders
It looks like the core of my preferred midfield is finally rounding back into health.  Cesc showed a little rust last weekend but should be a good (albeit expensive) bet this weekend.  Elano has seen his production drop a bit in the last month or so but he appears to be recovered from his injury.  History tells us that Villa/Rovers should be a tough pair of matches but both of Citeh's opponents are slumping so Elano might not be a bad bet.  Of course, Citeh are slumping as well so I wouldn't load up.

Ronaldo is, well, Ronaldo.  He's an ass and he's expensive but he produces.  I'd be shocked if he doesn't score at least two over the holidays.

Less obvious options in midfield that I'm considering strongly are as follows - Larsson, Barton (back from the dead?), N'Zogbia, and MPet.

Defenders
I was feeling really good about my defence at one point this year.  Between Bale, Eboue/Sagna, and Arbeloa I felt like at least one of my guys would have a good match each weekend with the potential for 2 or 3 always there.  Now? I'm trying to find guys who won't go negative on me while I try to spend my money elsewhere.  January can't get here fast enough for me.  On Alves, on Kaladze, on Hoyte (to Villa) and Emanuelson, on Djourou (back to Arsenal).

In the meantime, Tal Ben Haim should be filling in for John Terry and comes cheap (low 4s).  His presence may mean Chelsea are less likely to get a CS but its worth the risk at the price. The aforementioned Djourou isn't a horrible bet given the match-ups.  Likewise Murty from Reading - cheap and with a (small) chance of producing some points.

If you've done a better job with your budget than I have, please let me suggest you spend a little for the possibility that you might get some points from your back line.  Beye isn't a horrible option given the match-ups and his production so far this year. Ditto Arbeloa whose price has come back down a bit into the mid-7s.  Probably the best value for the money is McCartney given his match-ups and his surprising attacking numbers this season (talk about under the radar).  Finally, if I had it all to risk this weekend, I'd probably spend some money on Alex and Shorey - both high end items to be sure but both are in a good position to get some stats.

Keepers
I continue to ride the Shay Given express - at just under 20 points in two matches for less than 3.00 I have no complaints so far.  With Derby and Wigan coming up, I'm looking forward to a continuation for at least one more week.  Even if you're buying new right now, this is probably the best value play.

It appears from reports today that Isaksson will not continue on as Sven's #1 so there really aren't too many other bargain-basement options in net right now. Pepe Reina is a decent value at less than 11.00 with what we should all assume will be a guaranteed CS @DER.  If I had to recommend anyone else at the keeper spot, it would probably have to be Robert Green who is under 12.00 and has good match-ups.

Best of luck over a difficult buying period.  I'll try to have both the Barn Door Report and the Injuries and Suspensions to you in a more timely manner.

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