Fantasy Premier League

Thu Feb 21 02:52PM by Neal Thurman

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It seems like forever since we had any Premier League matches to write about - I have to admit, I had no idea what to do with myself last weekend.  Our dogs usually make sure I'm up no later than 7:30 AM and that's generally perfect since that's when the early Saturday Premier League match starts here on the East Coast of the US.  Imagine my horror when it dawned (pun intended) on me that I was awake with nothing to watch except the infomercials and other assorted junk that tends to populate early morning weekend television.  Throw in the lack of coverage of the ManYoo/Arsenal FA Cup match later in the day and it made for one grim Saturday. 

So, needless to say, I'm thrilled to have the Premier League back.  Not so thrilled with K2's botched late header yesterday or Toure's injury.  But still much happier than last weekend.

As we look toward this weekend's match-ups, you have to have a bit of an uneasy feeling.  It's been great business betting against Derby - especially when they are the away team - but this weekend, that means betting ON Wigan.  Tough times. 

Buy - Wigan (vs. DER gets you into this category without fail); Pompey (Sunderland's arrival at someone else's ground does the same); ManYoo (even on the road, NUFC is a mess)

Keep - Rovers (home to Bolton doesn't sound too scarey but Rovers have been mediocre in the New Year so not a buy opportunity); Liverpool (still not great but home to Boro should equal an ugly 1-0 home win); Villa (@RED isn't fantastic but this weekend, its no reason to sell); West Ham (not sure why you'd have too many Hammers but a trip to Fulham isn't a bad match-up); Arsenal (a bit of a mystery recently but you shouldn't be too scared by them visiting their B team, err, Birmingham).

Keep @ Discount - Bolton, Everton, Citeh, Fulham, and Birmingham (tough match-ups but not SO tough that you shouldn't stay the course with players who you have on the cheap)

Sell - Chelsea (not playing); Spurs (ditto); Derby (always here); Boro (time to get off the bandwagon after a nice run with Schwarzer, Huth, et al); Sunderland (not worth it on the road); Reading (just not showing many signs of life); NUFC (even worse, they're not showing much life AND facing ManYoo)

As far as specific players go...

Strikers
Outside of the obvious guys (Rooney, Tevez, and K2) there's not a ton of value out there because of the guys who aren't playing this weekend (Drogba, Anelka, Berbs, Keane).  Of the three, I'd go with Rooney if you're buying off the top shelf - he hasn't had a crazy day in a while and you know the hat trick is coming soon - why not against the dreadful NUFC defence?

Just below the really high ticket items, you have to like Benjani to continue to make 'arry a little foolish for giving up on him so easily.  Citeh have a tough match-up in Everton but I like Benjani to continue to do well. 

EdS is another option - he doesn't get much if he doesn't score but the match-up is pretty good and I like Arsenal to prove that while they may not be ready for ManYoo or Milan every day, they're still a few steps above the Birminghams of the world.

If you're looking for value at striker - you have to look hard at Defoe who is cheap and has a great match up.  Others worth taking a look at include Marlon King (yes, really), Heskey, and Dean Ashton.

Midfielders
Seems likely that CRon is going to break out and start putting up some points again given the match-up.  If you don't have the funds to pull that off then you have two choices - Gerrard will likely get you either 5.00 or 18.00+ and Bentley is pretty likely to get you between 10.00 and 12.00.  If you like risk, Gerrard is your guy.  If you like "slow and steady" then BFDB is your man.

Further down the pecking order, I'm quickly coming to the conclusion that MPet should be re-nicknamed BFMP.  He is exactly the sort of player that the blog loves - he's consistent, he takes kicks, he gets crosses, he gets assists, and he even gets an occasional goal.  With a better striker to help him convert some of those points, he's likely to get even better in the final third of the campaign.

Hard to know if Koumas is going to start but if it looks like he's going to due to an injury to Taylor, then you want to think about adding him to the mix as well against Derby.

Others to consider seriously include Muntari, Bullard (because he's still cheap and productive), and Valencia.

Defenders
Sharner is a little bit on the expensive side if you're assuming that Wigan is going to get a clean sheet - I can see the logic but I'm not sure I'm willing to buy in at over 8.  More interesting to me are Martin Skrtel from Liverpool who is still new and fairly cheap; Curtis Davies who is cheap and has a good match-up; Mario Melchiot (if he is healthy - he came out at halftime two weekends ago); and Noe Pamarot (if Distin and Johnson remain out).

Keepers
Its great when things like this happen...Chris Kirkland @ 3.11 home to Derby.  It just doesn't get much better than that.  If the Capt'n doesn't do it for you, you're going to have to buck up and spend some money this weekend.  Reasonable options include...Lehmann, Carson, and Friedel.

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