Fantasy Premier League

The Week Ahead

Thu Mar 20 01:45AM by Neal Thurman

What a wild week for the two-gamers.  For once in his life, Joe Cole came up big for fantasy managers when everyone was counting on him.  CRon was exactly what you'd have expected him to be with 3 goals and a raft of phantom points.  For those who paid attention to The Week Ahead last week, hopefully you got on the John Terry bandwagon that paid off to the tune of 26 points over the two matches.  The one thing that I wouldn't have predicted in a million years though was Spurs losing to Citeh but scoring 4 at Chelsea for a draw.  We've documented the tendency of midweek matches to be a bit on the slow side but today certainly bucked that trend.

Before we get to the predictions, there's a topic that Jeremy and I have been discussing over IM for the last couple weeks and I figured I'd share my thoughts.  The topic is how to play out the last portion of the season depending on whether you're leading or whether you're chasing.  In our group we tend to have a lot of side bets between members of the group so there is some strategy as we move towards the end of the season.  

We have debated the value of two strategies for trailing managers:

1) trying to make up ground slowly by sticking with core players like Ronaldo and just taking a couple risks each week; OR

2) doing a major makeover and going counter to what you expect the leader will do - this would require ditching guys like CRon and go for alternatives like Lampard or Gerrard.

Having trailed Jeremy most years, I have some experience in this and here's what I've concluded...there really isn't a good answer.  Last year, I ditched Ronaldo with about 10 weeks left and not only didn't I make up any ground, I lost ground.  Three years ago, it was Henry.  This year, Jeremy dropped CRon and went with Lampard and Rooney while I stuck with CRon and Tevez.  Not terrible strategy really since he had to make up ground but this is not the year to give up CRon.

I'm not sure if you can make up ground the old fashioned way by just doing better with your secondary players, but after this week (and the evidence from years past), I'm willing to throw out there the proposition that dropping the best player in the league and hoping the rest of your team picks up the slack isn't the answer.

OK, now on to the match-ups:

Buy: Boro (home to Derby); Villa (home to Sunderland); Rovers (Home to Wigan - I'm still not sold on Wigan despite their 5 match unbeaten streak); Everton (home to WHU) 

Hold: ManYoo (looking strong but Liverpool should provide more challenge than the average opponent); Fulham (bad on the road but NUFC are bad everywhere); NUFC (match with Fulham could go in just about any direction 0-0, 4-4, or a blow out in either direction - nothing would really surprise me - OK, maybe a NUFC win); Spurs (attackers only); Pompey (ditto); 

Hold at Discount: Wigan (not sure who you'd have but it might be worth keeping them in case this is real); Liverpool (Torres? Gerrard?); Reading (well, they're at home); Brum (doesn't it seem like they should be better with their talent? they aren't); Citeh (rotten on the road but playing generally rotten Bolton); Bolton (Steinsson was a nice play - probably worth keeping him for the potential nil-nil Clean Sheet)

Sell:  Derby (Duh); Sunderland (dismal on the road); West Ham (Everton are going to be fired up after losing to Fulham)

You may have noticed that neither Chelsea nor Arsenal are listed above.  Why? Because I have NO IDEA what is going to happen with this match. If Jose were still the manager, it would be clear that Chelsea would win 1-0 or 2-0 given Arsenal's current form.  With Grant at the helm and Wenger's men clearly flagging down the stretch, this is one I'm going to stay away from with the exception of keeping Joe Cole who I have at a gigantic discount.

I guess I've already started in on specific player recommendations so we might as well get down to it:

Strikers
If you can afford him, I'd go with an old blog favorite, Ashley Young.  If you can't afford the 17+ price tag on FBFAY (that's Former Blog Favorite Ashley Young) then you should move down to Gabby Agbonlahor at 11.82.

If you're looking down the price list a bit further, (and no, I can't believe I'm saying this) Aliadiere is a nice play.  Even more so if you got him before his price went up over the weekend.  Tuncay is the cheaper (and probably more talented) way to get in on the Boro strikeforce against Derby.

Other names worth throwing out there...Benjani, Faddy, RSC, and McBride.

Midfielders
Downing, Downing, Downing.  If you don't like that idea then BFDB is the next best choice.  Gareth Barry is another great choice here since he'll be taking what is almost certain to be a lot of kicks against Sunderland.  If you can afford Arteta, he's a great play against West Ham and if you can't afford Arteta then Pienaar is great value.

For those of you who have seen Rovers play in the last couple weeks, you may have noticed that MGP is showing some signs of life after being useless for most of the season.  Might be worth making some room on your roster for him as well.

Defenders
Wheater, Bardsley, Mellberg, and Bouma are all reasonably priced options. Luke Young is slightly more expensive but also attractive playing on the wing for Boro against Derby. If you're going to spend some money, Laursen and/or Lescott are both attractive options.

Keepers
Mark Schwarzer is really the only choice at just over 5.00 - talk about a no-brainer.  If you insist on being different Scott Carson will cost you more but he has a better team in front of him so the extra money might be worth it to you.

(62 user comments)

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  • (1)

    ferdinand has a record of scoring goals against liverpool. although his price is at 10+, i guess its just worth mentioning

    Posted by: kacakbergaya on Thu Mar 20 01:54AM | Report abuse
  • (2)

    which fulham middies would you go for? thanks

    Posted by: magia_capoeira on Thu Mar 20 02:20AM | Report abuse
  • (3)

    also .... elano/petrov vs bolton? seems elano's price went up quite a fair bit and petrov is back from suspension

    Posted by: magia_capoeira on Thu Mar 20 02:23AM | Report abuse
  • (4)

    As to leading strategy, I can tell you of one that worked against me last year. I was trailing a guy by not a lot. Each week, he would get players that I had. So that put the pressure on my players that we didn't share to come up big. I ran out of time and lost by 15 points. So if you are leading, I suggest the blocking stragey.

    Posted by: gentrykirby on Thu Mar 20 02:40AM | Report abuse
  • (5)

    Is Elano back in form? 2 assists against Spurs. I would fancy MPet to Elano. (2) Bullard, Andreasen and McBride are the only Fulham players who are worth buying. Aliadiere is back from suspension and should make the starting lineup against Derby.

    Posted by: zzzeclipse on Thu Mar 20 02:43AM | Report abuse
  • (6)

    I have CRon at +5, Lamps at +3 and JCole at +5. Should I drop Lamps for Downing? I doubt I'll drop CRon again this season unless he pulls up an Eduardo. And isn't Mellberg suspended after his sending off against Portsmouth?

    Posted by: zzzeclipse on Thu Mar 20 02:49AM | Report abuse
  • (7)

    I had a hundred point deficit to my groups leader. I figured that if I sold the premium players that we both shared I'd lose pace with his scores. Those players would still make their points to maintain their high average scores if I had them or not but if I sold them he'd be the only one benefiting from them. I'd lose pace. And that was the key to keep pace. I looked at my periphery players, looked at the fixture lists and started planning. KEEPING the players we shared that were constant earners and making points on the team match ups of my periphery players. The turning point was this past two gamer he chose ManU players and I chose Chelsea. Thank you very much Joe Cole I'm now 30 points clear as the leader. Oh and a certain Fernando Torres character I had faith in when he became a regular 'pool fixture. There's an English phrase... by doing what you wouldn't normally do and gutting your team in desperation "You bottled it" :)

    Posted by: fansarigt on Thu Mar 20 03:10AM | Report abuse
  • (8)

    In short: When you're running a race you don't suddenly start running sideways!

    Posted by: fansarigt on Thu Mar 20 03:12AM | Report abuse
  • (9)

    is andreasen from fulham really that good?

    Posted by: magia_capoeira on Thu Mar 20 03:46AM | Report abuse
  • (10)

    (9) He's more productive, compared to the other Fulham players. Dempsey is another Fulham player to watch, but he is 3rd choice to McBride and Eddie Johnson.

    Posted by: zzzeclipse on Thu Mar 20 05:18AM | Report abuse