Manchester United Message Board
Each team has played eight games.
United have played SIX teams currently in the top ten, and TWO teams in the bottom ten.
Citeh have played TWO teams in the top ten, and SIX out of the bottom eight teams.
Thought I had better make a prediction ahead of the Everton game.
I've looked at the last 10 league games at Goodison Park...
= 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.
It's kicking off midday (I think) and Utd haven't had the best of times when they kick off early.
It's not as clear cut as I like but my rules say I should say a loss and the early kick off is a factor. However my gut says it might be a draw or a narrow, hard-fought or lucky win. What to do... what to do...
5 wins and 5 non-wins. It could go either way! Oh go on then... I'll say a score draw.
Yes I wish I had time to make the prediction before the match!
And I think the 'system' may only work against the top teams. If I saw we had beaten Wolves every season for the last 10 games, I wouldn't necessarily go against that!
Robert, I'll be in touch for your email address once I'm up and running and beating betfair.
He also says, and it is plainly true, that a lot of his stunts are based on misdirection.
Notwithstanding that, the problem is that an accurate prediction made after a match is not worth nearly as much as accurate predictions made before matches. Above we agreed about the problem of remembering successes and forgetting failures. We all do it. The only real way to tell whether your method is as good as you think (or as bad as others might think) is to make testable predictions in a consistent way before matches and see what your success rate is. If it is better than Betfair then you shouldn't be on here talking about it, you should be quietly cleaning up.
Good luck(, and if your method is indeed better than Betfair I'll send you my email address).
re my prediction for a result - basing it on previous results and seeing what has happened the least (as I believe things have a strange way of evening themselves out over time).....
In the previous 10 PL home Utd v City fixtures. The form was:
So, I looked at that and could clearly see we had only lost 1 of the last 10 PL home games against City. Based on the fact that we had 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, I would have predicted - A LOSS.
Gilly Gilly Ossenfeffer Katzenellenbogen Gilly Gilly Ossenfeffer Katzenellenbogen Oct 21, 2011 03:21 Flag
"[when my Broadband is fully restored]"
More bollocks from slayer, trying to convince people he lives in the UK when we all know he has never been near the place!
Recent form helps confidence but this is a big derby game so form kind of goes out of the window.
I doubt many fans do this, but I look at the results of this fixture from the last 10 seasons or so. I then look at which results (ie win, loss , draw) occured. I make my prediction based on this - I believe that things even themselves out over time so the result that occured the least is sometimes what I think will happen - especially if my gut says the same.
It's a bit weird maybe and doesn't always work. But it did work for the Liverpool game last week - I looked at recent results and saw that a draw stood out to me - most results over the last 5 to 10 seasons have been wins for either team.
- 2 Replies to Neil
"I believe that things even themselves out over time so the result that occured the least is sometimes what I think will happen "
There are many people who believe that if you flip a coin five times and it comes up heads five times then due to "the law of averages" it is more likely to come up tails the next time. That looks like your reasoning above.
There is no law of averages. At least, not one that yields that conclusion. If it's a proper fair coin it is always going to be a 50% chance of coming up heads. And if it might not be a proper fair coin and it keeps coming up heads, it probably makes more sense to bet on it coming up heads again.
But predicting football scores is nothing like as scientific as measuring coin tosses, so good luck with the teapot and leaves.
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