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  • Sfer by Sfer . Nov 7, 2012 09:39 . Permalink

    Whenever the subject of how much time you should give a failing manager to turn it around, get his system working etc, comes up people almost always point at Old Big Red Nose or David Moyes.

    My problem with that is they are the exception as opposed to the rule. Plus they have both had very different amounts of success. OBRN has of course won everything going over a very long period of time. Could anybody else have done what he has done? Who knows but unlikely. Moyes has in contrast won nothing. His claim to fame is that he has kept Everton in the PL with very little money. Two very different meanings of success.

    How long is "enough time" and if you give the manager enough time and it fails where does that leave your beloved team?

    What - 5 years, 10, 2 ?? OK, so you give him 2 years and say to yourselves "no matter what happens we give this guy 2 years" and at the end of the 2 years you are in the Championship, mid table, the ground is nearly empty and all your best players have gone with no chance of replacing them. Do you stick with the manager on the basis that he needs more time then?

    There is too much at stake for everybody, the owners, the players and the fans, to stick by someone that you "hope" will turn it around. Its a tough old world and whilst you might not expect a new manager on several million pounds a year (sarcasm!) to win his first 6 or even 10 games, you would certainly expect him to have the crowd, the management and most importantly, the players on his side.

    Joe, in another post, said that getting rid of a manager too quickly showed a small club mentality. I don't agree with that. Are Chelsea a small club? Have they got rid of several managers after relatively very little time? Yes, are they CL Champions who will no doubt be in the top 4 (or 3) again this year - yes.

    There are two differences between the AVB at Chelsea and the AVB now. First, he has been told to smile more when doing TV interviews and second, well there is no second from what I can see.

    He has adopted the same negative team tactics, he has made some very strange sub decisions and subsequently that has put some of the neutrals in the crowd against him, he "appears" to have lost the support of some of the senior players (already), he looks like insisting on playing 4-5-1 with tiny Defoe up front on his own and even though he smiles more - he still looks like a smug git.

    Yes of course we will win some games this year and I do not expect us to be in the relegation scrap but for a team that most neutrals and "experts" think should be fighting for 4th is that good enough? And what about next year whilst this "transistiion period" that is somewhere in AVB's mind is going on, where does that leave us? watching boring negative games and seeing our best players leave - that would be my guess.

    I dearly hope I am wrong but all the facts (as I see them of course) do not point that way.

    So, and this is only my opinion of course, AVB is not going to be the saviour we all crave, not now and not next year. And on that basis, regardless of the flack we would get from those who think everyone deserves "more time", I would start looking for someone with all the qualities that a top manager has right now. That "flack" would be long forgotten if we were to actually win something or even get into the top 4.

    • longtimespur by longtimespur . Nov 7, 2012 09:49 . Permalink

      Sorry Sfer, I was just writing my post on AVB whilst you were doing this one. So I'll ...

      Sorry Sfer, I was just writing my post on AVB whilst you were doing this one. So I'll not comment again on here.

    • Jlock by Jlock . Nov 14, 2012 13:58 . Permalink

      So is being a top 4 manager about which team you manage or the manager himself? Or both? W...

      So is being a top 4 manager about which team you manage or the manager himself? Or both? Which carries the most 'weight'?

      Could say, Martinez get Wigan to the top 4? Could Alardyce with West Ham? Could 'arry have with Portsmouth?

      How on earth do you know who is a 'top 4 manager' before they become a top 4 manager?

      IMHO it isn't so much about the manager, as the resources the club has. Fine AVB *kept* Porto where they had been accustomed to being, so he didn't make a complete hash of it in Portugal.
      But until he had a chance with a club who had the resource in the EPL to achieve and sustain 4th, then how can you tell?

      It's odd how the clubs are called the big four - given that those clubs have (apart from two) had multiple managers.
      Woolwich
      Utd
      Liverpool
      Chavs
      and now Citeh
      and maybe us
      had or now have the resource to sustain a top 4 challenge.

      So realistically, until a manager gets to manage one of those clubs, how do you know if they're top 4 material?

      Levy decided that 'arry wasn't the way, and decided on AVB - is he any worse a choice than say Moyes or O'Neill or Benitez or..... I would say that you can't tell. No way to predict.

      If you look back (I think I started a thread) that showed how the EPL has become dominated by certain clubs over the past 20 years or so. Before that, certain clubs had better runs - true, but the top of the table positions seemed to be more conducive to change season on season. The change to domination seemed to be coincident with the EPL and CL - the obvious inference is that the money, and hence better players, is likely to be the key - not so much the manager. (AVB could be seen as a Portuguese equivalent case in point there).

    • Jlock by Jlock . Nov 8, 2012 13:14 . Permalink

      It's all opinion Joe. I'm not for boo'ing - I see that people pay money and wa...

      It's all opinion Joe.
      I'm not for boo'ing - I see that people pay money and want to express their feelings, but IMHO, boo'ing is indiscriminate and counter productive. To do/play well you need to feel good - boo'ing is intended to make the target feel the opposite.

      AVB was brought in to, presumably, do 'better' than we had before.
      I find it slightly odd that now some comments here are about playing good football and ignoring position. Didn't we have the opposite under 'arry - he played some of the best football I've seen at WHL, but because we missed out on CL he got slammed. That was the reason Modric left blah blah. we can't attract top class players blah blah.
      They forgot that the style of football is what got us noticed across Europe - not just in this country. Odd that Citeh with all their stars didn't light-up Europe as we did.

      Now we have AVB who is more reserved and tacky-tickle. BUT people don't like his tactics any more than they liked 'arry's alleged lack of them. I bet supporters at Citeh don't always like Mankini's tactics, or Wengers at Woolwich. Aren't most supporters back seat managers who think they know better?

      So what is '..better than before..'? Is it position in the EPL? Is it trophies? Is it style of play? Is it, like it seems to partly be, simply a better personality?

      I'm with Sfer in a way, in as much as I don't like AVB too much as a personality. I don't think he's arrogant, more of a 'style over substance' type. But he has been appointed as the manager and will be the manager until the board/Levy decide he's to go. So, until that point, get behind him and the team.

      I think now people want 'style' back. But we had that and wanted something more. What managers are capable of providing both and have a record of doing so? Moyes - not for me - but he seems to have supporters here.

      If players won't come to us because of no CL, why would any top manager? And how do you become a top manager, without managing at the top level? AVB may be a top manager in the waiting. He may not. Levy will decide on how long he has to show he's a top manager.


      PS I also didn't agree with the article's '......'arry took us as far as he could....' and then using the second half of seasons as examples as to why. Based on that you'd have to use first halves as well - so should Wenger have gone as they didn't perform in the first half - but they came strong in second? If they got rid of him they would never have known they would have finished 3rd. Judge on the season. Judge over multiple seasons.

    • Jlock by Jlock . Nov 14, 2012 14:23 . Permalink

      Is your responding to me to tell me that you've been ignoring me and that you won'...

      Is your responding to me to tell me that you've been ignoring me and that you won't respond a bit like a page in a book that has:
      'This page intentionally left blank'
      printed on it?

      Sfer, Ignore away. I raised a general point. I won't feel offended if you deign not to respond (or reply to tell me that you definitely won't respond)

      So after that: The question is:

      What does then make a top 4 manager, and how can you spot one?

    • Jlock by Jlock . Nov 15, 2012 17:19 . Permalink

      Wot Sfer? Replying by proxy? Clever. I was not trying to wind anyone up. You simply made ...

      Wot Sfer? Replying by proxy? Clever.

      I was not trying to wind anyone up. You simply made a comment:
      '...One season of success with Porto does not a PL top 4 manager make!! ...'

      The term 'top 4 team' to me means a team that regularly achieves top 4 status - ie it is a record of past achievement, and a potential predictor of future.
      The teams that fall into that then are Utd, Chavs, Woolwich, Pool and now Citeh.
      We started to get there, but I would suggest we don't quite fit the epithet - Yet.

      As for a manager - if you use the same criteria, then that limits very few managers to be judged in that category (given that Utd and Woolwich have been stable, and Citeh have only achieved it with one manager) - only Pool and the Chavs having multiple managers.

      I would say that 'arry NEARLY got there. If he'd done it this year, then I would personally have classed him as a 'top 4 manager'. But then any manager outside of the existing 4 (5) clubs managerial history can't be top 4 managers, if you use that criteria. Oddly, I would not yet class Mancini or Di Matteo as top 4 managers - they are managers of top 4 clubs, but not as yet top 4 managers.

      That then raised the question in my mind as to how can you identify a manager who has top 4 'potential'? Obviously it's not easy, or else every club would have one ('I told 'eeem we already 'ave one...' as Monty Python would say). It is also then obviously linked to the finances and ambition of the club itself. So can you have a 'top 4 manager', without having a club that already has potential for top 4?
      IE even with 'arry and what he achieved over the three seasons, could he have done the same ten seasons back?

      Is AVB 'a top 4 manager'. No. Not by the above definition - he can't be. Does he have the potential. based on current, and limited record? IMO no. Could that change by Christmas? Yes. It could start this weekend. It may not. The problem, is that 'top 4 [manager|club]' is a hindsight thing.

      If it was easy to predict, the Chavs would have had one manager over the years as would Pool and Citeh. It seems more like a lottery to me. 'Arry totally surprised me. AVB may.

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