McLaren appear to have a slight edge...but we've seen teams sandbag before, and I feel this is one of those occassions where the Ferrari will strike during qualifying and take 1st and 3rd. Insert Alonso 2nd and Hamilton 4th. The race should finish in that order as well. I like Raikkonen in Monza. He's won there before, and has the car to repeat it.
I think Massa and Raikkonen are too far behind in the standings to come back. At least Hamilton or Alonso will score podiums consistently in the final races, if not both, so only two or four (if they're lucky) points will be taken back by the Ferrari drivers per weekend. Don't know about the constructor's though - sure if the Hungary points deductions stand, Ferrari have a task 15 points easier.