I agree - but here's how people build conspiracies out of things...
How much influence will Renault have. On the face of it, as much as Ferrari, more than Mercedes.
Now look again. Who provides the Red Bull engine? So, that's two teams that Renault can influence.
And what about the Monaco Circuit. Do we know if their representative favours Renault, or Ferrari? I mean, look at the location of Monaco. So sudden;y, renault might have three representatives in thier back pockets before any negotiations start.
If these things can be turned into a conspiracy, someone out there will turn it into a conspiracy.
Far fetched? Maybe - and stranger things have happened.