Guest blog: Wilander on London
Sat Nov 21 08:32AM
Formerly known as the Masters Cup, the ATP World Tour Finals get under way on Sunday at London's magnificent O2 Arena. Mats Wilander runs the rule over the eight contenders at one of the most exciting events of the season.
Novak Djokovic
He is definitely the favourite. He has done something to his game and something to his brain. He is more focused on winning rather than feeling his own pain and disappointment. At least he's not showing his disappointment as much as he used to. He's more professional now and looks physically stronger, though he's not showing it too much. He's in what you might call a "go out and do your job and don't tell anyone how bad you feel inside" mood. And that makes a big, big difference with the other guys. In London, it's a two-out-of-three sets format, which suits him better than three-out-of-five, in which I think he shows his emotions too much. He doesn't care who he plays. He can beat anyone. And he should beat everyone all the time.
Rafael Nadal
He's not playing any different to the way he used to, but he might not be quite as strong. He's lost some weight because of his knees maybe. But more than a case of him playing badly, what's happened is that Robin Soderling showed at the French how to beat Nadal. And he has been beaten many times since then. Even guys like Nicolas Almagro and Tommy Robredo are now playing him the right way. You can't hit a defensive shot against him because if you do that, he starts controlling the point. So what you need to do is take the ball early and hit it as hard as you can, using flat trajectories, anywhere in the court. And that's what everybody is doing now. He's not playing any worse but his opponents know what they need to do, and I think he needs to start doing something different, especially on his forehand. I can't see him reaching the semis to be honest.
Nikolay Davydenko
He can beat Nadal, he can beat Federer and he can beat Djokovic, but not on a consistent basis. But those guys are now losing on a consistent basis, so that puts him in a position where he can say to himself, "If other guys can do it, then I can do it". He is a confident player but he's never had the belief that he was as good as the two or three best players in the world. But all of a sudden the locker room is helping him, telling him, "we can all beat those guys". He is a better player, for example, than Julien Benneteau, who beat Federer in Paris. So I'd be very surprised if Davydenko doesn't win a big tournament before the end of his career. And why not another Masters 1000, a Grand Slam or an ATP Finals? It would be so unfair if he didn't.
Robin Soderling
For me he's a top-five player and I just don't know how he didn't beat Djokovic in Paris. He's better than most other players, he hits the ball harder, and he's more dangerous because if he's playing well, it's very difficult to do anything against him. I don't think he is at a point where he believes he can beat four of the top eight players in the world in the same week, and the other guys know Soderling will crack mentally at some point. That's why they are the best in the world and he has only just arrived on the scene. I don't think he can win the tournament but he can beat Nadal and Djokovic two days in a row, lose to Davydenko and reach the semis. I'm pretty sure that Soderling will win a Major one day, or at least reach another Grand Slam final. He is too strong not to.
Roger Federer
For him, it's a bonus if he wins, and it won't do anything to his confidence if he doesn't. It's the cherry on the cake but it doesn't take anything away from the cake if he doesn't win. So he can come in with a very relaxed attitude. And if he plays well, he can win it. But it's a big tournament with the top eight players. It's not like a Grand Slam where you can play yourself into shape by winning the first few games in three sets against 'nobodies'. If he's not relaxed and doesn't play well, he'll lose. With Federer it's difficult to say. If he's not playing at his best, what will his attitude be? He needs to win one match, he needs his confidence to go up and people to stop talking. He won the French and Wimbledon but people are still talking about his final defeats to Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro in Melbourne and New York. He gave up in the fifth set in those matches and he has something to prove to himself. That makes him dangerous in London, though I think he's focusing more on the Australian Open than the Masters here.
Andy Murray
Does it come at the right time for Andy Murray? Not really, because he's not playing well. He didn't look that interested when he played Radek Stepanek in Paris. He is looking for his game a little bit and not being aggressive enough. He keeps playing sliced backhands and guys have figured out how to play him as well. It's like they're saying: "Murray is not going to hurt me. I'm not going to make any mistakes. Go on Andy beat me! You have no big weapons. You have a good backhand, you can run forever, you serve ok and you know the game. But listen, I will give you nothing, so now try to beat me." But this event could be an unbelievable confidence boost for him if he does well. He doesn't have to win it, but he needs to make the semis at least. At the same time, it could break his confidence completely and take him from where he is now down to 20th in the world. But he's in a good group because he's not playing the most patient guys, which will favour him. And the fact that it's in London means he might have more of a Grand Slam attitude than the other guys.
Juan Martin Del Potro
No idea! When you are 20 or 21, like he is now, winning the tournament is not necessarily the main goal. Unfortunately the money gets in the way sometimes. Sometimes you decide to play when maybe you shouldn't. You are not at 100 per cent but you're doing it anyway. You go through the motions because it's good money and maybe you'll get lucky and win a match. He is not going to do anything. I'm 100 per cent sure about that. No way!
Fernando Verdasco
He hasn't done better in a Grand Slam yet because of his head. The guy is talented and this could be his tournament. When it's best-of-three, the mental side gets taken out of the equation. For him, it's a matter of time, so he might be dangerous. His feeling is that Federer doesn't like playing him because his style is the same as Nadal's. Del Potro is injured, and he can dictate to Murray probably more than anyone else. He can reach the final. He can beat those guys. Maybe he won't beat Federer but he's going to be dangerous for sure.
Thank you mr Wilander, it is always a great pleasure listening to or reading your opinions on tennis. It is refreshing to read a text that actually means something and contains lots of insight. Please do come back!
From egy_allat on Sat Nov 21 09:42AMnow, this is what you call a tennis analysis. not those useless, utterly ridiculous comments made by the simon reed clown!
From juridallas on Sat Nov 21 10:22AMHe's definately on a mission to annoy Simon Reed.
From aeronick2000 on Sat Nov 21 10:29AMWilander, your prediction is not that bad, the only problem is that you always underestimate RAFA,you said he will not reach the semis, would you put your money on that?, ill remind you about this on friday next week. enjoy the tennis.
From melusgold on Sat Nov 21 10:31AMVery good anaisys. It is clear and in the line with reality. Wilander, will you please continue with your comments in the future.
From corazon.davis on Sat Nov 21 10:45AMThis is the best blog I read on eurosport in a long while. Mr. Wilander should take Reed's job.
From stunt_1 on Sat Nov 21 10:58AMYEah ,not bad from Mats, but he doesnt mention the fight for #1 which givel Raf&Fed, a very acute edge on their thirst for this tournament. I ppredict a bow shaped structure to the 2009 season, with a Raf&Fed final, just like in Melbourne. Only that this time Roge will win to cement his # 1 domincance. I think wants to cement that top spot, before he loses it late in the end of next year.
Djoko very confident, but acutally tired, mentally by now. And Murray will come short, also with tiredness. Delpo could sneak in, i think he will come the closest from the other 6. but will give in the towel to fed in semis.From juanwaller on Sat Nov 21 12:02PMVery good analysis contrary to a 'simoned murraylistic' way. His analysis
is based on past and present events and did not directly predict the winner. May be the 'only flaw' is saying Nadal will not make the semis, which may be true based on Nadal recent injuries and performance but he
has no proof NOW if Nadal is in a perfectly shaped condition.We will wait
and see.From edrom918 on Sat Nov 21 12:33PMWilander is an expert on tennis. No question about that and the analysis of the playing styles seems pretty much spot on to me. Having said that, I'm a bit surprised about some of the examples he cites because they don't really tally with the head-to-head results, as far as I'm aware. For instance, Davydenko has yet to beat Fed in 12 starts, surely a fact worth mentioning. Soderling has never beaten Djokovic (0-5, I think) but he has a positive balance against Davydenko, so I don't understand the hypotheses that he could beat Djokovic and lose to Davydenko when the evidence would seem to suggest that the reverse is more likely. While there are similarities between Verdasco and Nadal in terms of style, I think Verdasco has only taken one set off Fed in previous meetings (0-4/5 h2h???)so I'm not sure that he'd be all that convinced that Federer doesn't like playing him. Good article nonetheless and it is nice to read insights from such a great champion.
From rhymes450 on Sat Nov 21 12:42PMgood article ,,, spoke from the brain ,,, why don't eurosport hire him instead of Reed
From lolywebas on Sat Nov 21 12:47PMha, ha... i just love what he said about Murray... I think, at this moment Simon Reed must be somewhere buying gun to kill Willander... He has attacked his darling...
Really, spot on for this article... It's really refreshing... And finally something objective...From pucoman87 on Sat Nov 21 01:05PMInteresting, yes. But as always, Mr. Wilander (who used to be one of my favourite players) is talking Rafa down. In that regard he was proved wrong in the past, and will be proved wrong in the future. He's claiming that Nadal is playing as well/bad as ever, and that he has no chance to reach the finals. And at the same time, he calls Verdasco a threat, although he is supposed to have the same playing style. Söderling didn't show anything to the tennis world. He was pushed to despair by Nadal in Rome this year, which some people seem to have forgotten. As to RG, benefitting from your opponent's injury and emotional mess is not an achievement, even if you happen to be Swedish.
From granducal on Sat Nov 21 01:11PMMats knows his stuff. I agree completely about Novak (wathced him dismantle Nadal en vivo in Cincinnati). Fed will either crush everyone or will not make the finals. Davydenko may be a dark horse. Of course, it's anyone's tournament to take becaus of the format. Remember Nalbandian's ability to crush top seeds three days in a row - it may happen in London. Thanks Mats.
From ntcro99 on Sat Nov 21 01:13PMGood article, but it's not a surprise considering that's written by Wilander.
Personaly I think Mats is giving too much credit to Soderling, who's demonstratede this year to be a really strong player and tough guy but still I don't think he has so many chances to qualify for the semis againt Nole, Rafa and Davydenko... but you know, I've never thought that he could have beaten Rafa and Nikolay in a row at Roland Garros and he did, so who knows! Anyway I think in this case Mats is listening a little to his heart too, but well, I guess it's a pleasure for him to see finally another really good swedish player out there.
I agree that Rafa isn't playing well at all, but he's got such a will and winning-experience that he's probably able to defeat player who're playing actually better than him. But he needs some help by them, otherwise THIS Rafa could not even win a single match. But oh well, he's not at his best condition and has to play against the best player in the world, it wouldn't be a shame in any case.
I think then that Murray can do a good tournament: it's two-out-of-three format, the one who suits him best, and in his group he must face Verdasco and Del Potro, whose condition isn't good at all, and a Federer whom I found a little too "relaxed" after US Open. So I'm pretty sure that Andy is going to reach the semis. Then the game would be really hard for him.From simondi.filippo on Sat Nov 21 01:14PMTo No. 14 Granducal, when Mats said "His feeling is that Federer doesn't like playing him because his style is the same as Nadal's" his wording might not have been the best. Nadal and Verdasco have very different playing styles. BUT both naturally hit, specifically, into Fed's backhand, what seperates them is Nadal kicks it up high and Verdasco tries to get it out wide to the Fed BH (Fed on form shouldn't have any problem with that). Mats did use the word "feels".
I don't think he's talking Rafa down. From day one he's been saying to play Rafa you hit hard and flat and take the ball on the rise. We used to see that from Bake and Nalbandian and now you see it from the taller guys like Delpo and Cilic. It's just technical match-ups.
From logicsurvives on Sat Nov 21 01:28PMlol,people attack to Simon Reed by all accounts but doesn't say anything to Mats Wilander,who is again biased towards the same players and underestimating the same ones. Same old story,Mats! Yeah,we got it,you're in love with Soderling and you don't like Rafa and Del Potro! How can he be so sure about a Del Potro failure but a Verdasco success is beyond me.
From cero862000 on Sat Nov 21 02:13PMSimon Reed, turn over to Mats or best seek 3 month seminar from him to get yourself well polished.
From siaquiyahdavis on Sat Nov 21 02:19PMIt's always good to read an analysis from a player's point of view. Gives you much more insight on how the players themselves are thinking especially on the mental side. I think Soderling has a lot to prove though
From umar_eps on Sat Nov 21 02:28PMi will back u up on that one rhymes, i agree there are good insights but a lot of personal prejudice as well
me thinks, he has it in for rafa and i believe smugly feels he contributed to rafas demise at rg at the hands of soderling and probably rightly so, its a very much my way or the highway story from the great matts, a balanced impartial article me thinks not.From rajahralphrajah on Sat Nov 21 04:15PMMatt, you always down critiques Nadal as another person said above me. But I agree with you on Soderling's merciless down right flat shots that killed precarious Nadal at the French...yeah, everybody's got Rafa's number ? Nadal's fit, ready for counter punching now. Only time will tell.
Vamos Rafa !!From ssf36604 on Sat Nov 21 04:21PMI hope Nadal prove u wrong
From petert3 on Sat Nov 21 04:58PMPretty fair assesment i think but being Swedish he overrates Soderling who i feel is very inconsistant. Also their must be more to Nadals slump, otherwise the other players would have figured it out long ago how to beat him. I can't forget his win in Australia, where is that Nadal now? He may be right about Murray, i just hope not and he will get the confidence back. Djokovic was losing everywhere the first half of the season and HE has recovered now. So i guess everyone goes down at some point.
From jon60p on Sat Nov 21 05:20PMHi there Ralph. I can see the point that Mats is making about Rafa, though I think it's something other players have been trying to do against him on faster courts for a few years now. Unlike Mats, I think Rafa is playing worse than he was at the beginning of the year. The amazing thing is that he has had such good results despite not been at his best. In many matches it's been surprising to see how short he's hitting and how he's struggled with his rhythm. It probably hasn't helped that he's made his comeback during the part of the season which is traditionally toughest for him. I agree with Wilander that he has some problems on the forehand side particularly. He needs to get his down-the-line shots working on that wing like at the start of the year to move somebody like Djokovic out of his comfort zone, for example. Djoko and Davydenko are arguably the worst opponents for Rafa on a faster surface, but he might only needs one win there, if he can take out Soderling on day 1 (I'd back him to do that). It's gonna be tough, but we are talking about Nadal here, so it's definitely on the cards IMO.
From rhymes450 on Sat Nov 21 05:32PMwe will see agree with u that this doesnt seem like the rafa at the beginning of the year. i guess its just really hard to get back to where he left off (beg of the year) where he seemed super human. bring on 2010.
From rajahralphrajah on Sat Nov 21 06:09PMLOL at the Murray comments, lol at when he said that Verdasco can dicatate to him and mentality goes out of the equation over three sets. Um lets recall Valencia semi-finals, true that Verdasco was dictating points but oh nooooooo he never fell away in that match at all whatsoever! I also laughed at the Soderling comments as well, of course he would support his fellow Swede. And Nadal is coming back from a career threating injury so of course he is still not on form and is losing. Its partly due to the fact that opponents know how to play him but also because he is still not at his best! Stick to playing and not predicting or analysing tennis please Mat!
From katrina.street on Sat Nov 21 07:57PMThe Matt analysis is all wrong. The only black sheep is murray. He can spin surprises
From attaha on Sat Nov 21 08:22PMWell i pretty much agree with everything he said... Even with the Soderling part... He has the game, ne is just not mentally strong to win big tournaments... yet... If Soderling reaches semis here, it will be very good for him and his confidence will rise... But i dont agree with the part "He is better then most of the oter guys"... He still has to work much to join the "Big 4 (5?)"...
But at least this blog is 3x better then that @#$% we read from Simon Reed... Thx Mats!
From skochkoman on Sat Nov 21 10:29PMGood to see an accurate assessment of Murray - he is far too defensive & in some peoples opinion, he bores his opponents into mistakes. I'm hoping that he continues in this vein & the top guys teach him a lesson in attacking tennis. Wilander is as stuck in his opinions as Simon Reed, he tends to stick to the ones he likes. Some of you say he's pretty well correct, but I remember him going for Roger fairly confidently, 2 years ago at RG, when Rafa took him apart.
From dianabc44 on Sat Nov 21 10:45PMGreat perspective Mr.Wilander, but I really think Soderling is a bit overrated... Also, you finally gave some credit to Djokovic but although I'm a big fan, I think he is probably worn down menatally it would be great if he could reach semis here... My money is on Murray, he just needs a good start. Fedex is the best of course but it looks like he's too relaxed and maybe not so motivated as before - if things get tough, he doesn't fight so hard anymore. As for Nadal, like him or not, he is already a legend and it would be a pity if he doesn't come back at some point...
From anche1109 on Sat Nov 21 11:27PMWauw it seems like you know everything
nothing has start yet. however, i hope you are rigt.
but too be honest, i dont think so,..!!From moortje0 on Sun Nov 22 01:48AM
Comment on this article
Please sign in to add your comments.
Simon Reed
Sport Newsletter
Catch up with all the latest news
Sign up to our free daily newsletter to recieve the latest news straight to your inbox. Make sure you don’t miss a thing.
Sign up now
This site is Copyright © 2010 Yahoo! and Eurosport. All rights reserved.
- Terms of Service
- Updated Privacy Policy
- Copyright/IP Policy
- Remarks and Suggestions
- Corporate info
- Jobs at Eurosport
Notice: We collect personal information on this site. To learn more about how we use your information, see our Privacy Policy.