Premier League - Cheer up United, it's not over yet

Tue, 01 May 14:54:00 2012

Manchester United fans could be forgiven for abandoning hope of winning the Premier League title after their derby defeat.

2012 Manchester United - 0

Manchester City's 1-0 win at the Etihad Stadium saw them take top spot on goal difference with two matches left, having wiped out an eight-point deficit.

However, statistics from Infostrada's Euro Club Index suggest City's chances of winning their first league title since 1968 are little better than 50-50.

Infostrada estimate that City have a 57.4 per cent chance of winning the Premier League, with the remaining 42.6 per cent going United's way.

What's more, City's chances of winning both remaining games - Newcastle away and QPR at home - are just 34.9 per cent.

Here are the probabilities for each result in City and United's final two matches.

Manchester United fans could be forgiven for abandoning hope of winning the Premier League title after their derby defeat. - 2

Using this data, we have worked out the likelihood of every possible points total from these two games - six, four, three, two, one or zero.

Manchester United fans could be forgiven for abandoning hope of winning the Premier League title after their derby defeat. - 3

From here, we can combine the teams and work out the probability of every combination of points.

For example, the table below shows the chance of City gaining four points and United six is 15.3 per cent.

The background of each cell indicates who would be champions if that scenario played out.

* Manchester United could win the title on goal difference if the points totals are level, but their current deficit of eight goals makes the chance of this statistically insignificant.

Manchester United fans could be forgiven for abandoning hope of winning the Premier League title after their derby defeat. - 4

If we add up the total of all of the blue and red cells, we are left with the overall probability that each club will win the title.

MANCHESTER CITY CHAMPIONS: 57.4% - MANCHESTER UNITED CHAMPIONS: 42.6%

It might have felt like a title decider last night, but with two games to go the destiny of the Premier League trophy is still far from certain.

Man City 1 Man Utd 0

Alex Chick / Eurosport

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