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Closing Time: Andre Ethier, back in the game; can't touch Jason Hammel

Closing Time: Andre Ethier, back in the game; can't touch Jason Hammel

A few years ago, Andre Ethier was a pretty big deal. He made a couple of All-Star teams, won a Gold Glove, snagged an $85 million contract extension in 2012. It looked like he’d be part of the landscape in Los Angeles for seasons to come, blending in with Vin Scully and the palm trees.

The big contract turned into a line of demarcation for Ethier. He struggled through a second-half slump in 2012, and things got worse in the next two seasons. For much of 2014, he was a fourth outfielder, a part-time player, someone you could safely ignore in mixed leagues. A .249/.322/.370 slash doesn’t make much of a case for fantasy relevance. Into his age-33 season, no one was expecting much.

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When the Dodgers opened the 2015 season, their planned outfield had Carl Crawford in left, Joc Pederson in center and Yasiel Puig in right. Alas, these things are never a good bet to last all season, and the injury bug chomped on the Dodgers quickly. Crawford (oblique) and Puig (hamstring) hit the DL before the end of April, forcing Ethier back into the regular lineup again.

Call it a happy accident for the Dodgers. Since Puig last saw the field on April 24, Ethier is on a .311-17-6-17 binge. He’s getting on base (.392 OPB), hitting the ball with authority (.566 slugging), and controlling his at-bats (just one more strikeout than walk). If you rank Yahoo outfielders over that time period, Ethier comes out as the No. 22 man, a solid OF 2 or 3 for any roster. The Dodgers cranked four home runs in Monday’s laugher at Colorado, with Ethier planting one in the shrubbery.

Puig is making progress with his recovery and might kick off a rehab assignment this week, but I can’t see Ethier’s story fading to black anytime soon. Crawford is still weeks away from entering the conversation, and the Dodgers might finally recognize that Crawford should be the odd player out, anyway. There are a handful of other outfield candidates that L.A. will consider (Scott Van Slyke sometimes, Alex Guerrero sometimes); Ethier beats Van Slyke at the plate, and is superior to Guerrero in the field (so is a lawn chair, but hey, the man can hit).

Bottom line, I expect Ethier to stick around as a regular for most of the year, even if it’s primarily against right-handed pitching. (He’s had lefty issues in previous seasons, not this year in a limited sample.) And who’s to say the injured Dodgers come back seamlessly? Until they’re on the field and producing, Ethier has nothing to worry about.

Should Ethier still be available in two-thirds of Yahoo leagues? I don’t think so.

If you need some help with your drop, here are some outfield-eligibles I would release in favor of Ethier. All of these players have similar ownership tags to Ethier, most of them higher: Danny Santana, Austin Jackson, Nick Markakis, probably Leonis Martin and Ender Inciarte, Rusney Castillo. And that’s just from the outfield pool; perhaps you can find a player at a different position who’s disposable, freeing you up to add Ethier.

Have some fun with sweet sixteen. A six-week sample is too great to ignore.

You can't touch this (Stanley Burrell)
You can't touch this (Stanley Burrell)

• 

What is Chris Bosio teaching his pitchers in Chicago, and how can we get a seminar? (My Wiffle Ball stats are lagging.) The Cubs have turned around a bunch of arms in recent years, with Jason Hammel one of the most shocking surprise stories.

Hammel broke into the majors with Tampa Bay in 2006, and for the most part he’s been a forgettable right-hander (4.18 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Three years in the pitching hell of Colorado certainly didn't help. But something has clicked for Hammel in Chicago the last two years, covering 27 starts: 2.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, just about a strikeout per inning.

Of course the Cubs flipped Hammel in the middle of all this, trading him to Oakland last year in the Addison Russell swap. Hammel fell off to a 4.26 ERA in his 67.2 innings there, nothing to see. And then the Cubs swept back into the story, signing Hammel to a two-year contract in December. Well played, Team Epstein.

The Hammer had his electric stuff in an 11-strikeout stroll at Miami on Monday, pushing his ERA to 2.82 and his WHIP to 0.90. Slip-sliding away. The 2.82 ERA is completely supported by the under-the-hood metrics: FIP, xFIP and SIERA all suggest a slightly-lower ERA. Everything on the spreadsheet is in Hammel’s corner.

Well, not everything, I guess. The three rest-of-season ERA projections that you’ll find at Fangraphs spit out high-3s for the remainder of the season. This is where most formulas look at Hammel’s career body of work and play the skepticism card. I checked a couple of ROS ranks on Hammel from a handful of respected industry sites, and no one had him inside the Top 35. The consensus landed in the 40s.

Okay, I’ll be the guy who believes in the story. I’ll be willing to believe in the pictures I see, and the value of the Hammel-Bosio relationship. Perhaps Hammel’s increased slider usage will lead to long-term problems, but I won’t fret for the remainder of 2015. Call Hammel a Top 25 pitcher the rest of the way, a set-and-forget guy, an event you can look forward to every five days.

Hammel is a good example of where you take his projected ROS stats and throw them in the dumpster. Guys change their game, improve. I'm a believer.

• If you came for the Joey Gallo party, Andy Behrens has you covered over here. In the meantime, maybe I can interest you in a different pickup, less exciting but more proven. Joe Panik time in San Francisco.

Although second base is far from an easy fill in 2015, Panik’s ownership level hovers around the modest 20-25 percent area. This low number is despite a strong push from Panik; over the last month, he’s been the No. 5 keystone in Yahoo leagues (.321-18-4-14-1).

Last year Panik looked like one of those “empty average” batters, someone who could be around .300 but would rarely hit a homer or steal a base. This year Panik’s given us four taters, a couple of bags. It won’t make you forget the heyday of Robbie Alomar, but it at least makes Panik playable as a utility middle in most mixed leagues.

Panik has walked more this year and cut down on out-of-zone swings. His contact rate has been elite for his full two-year career. The Giants believe; they use him in the No. 2 slot just about every game. The endless supply of Panik puns, that's just a bonus. Have some fun with this one, gamers.

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