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Bubble breakdown: NC State tumbles back to the bubble
With less than three weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the NCAA tournament bubble is beginning to take shape. Bubble Breakdown is the Dagger's daily look at the results that impact who's in and who's out.
Maybe NC State only plays well when its backs are against the wall. Maybe NC State really enjoys visiting Dayton in mid-March.
Whatever the reason, the Wolfpack seem to be drawn to the bubble like a magnet to steel.
Only four days after a victory at rival North Carolina appeared to solidify NC State as an NCAA tournament team, the Wolfpack tumbled back toward the cutline with a humbling 79-63 loss at last-place Boston College. They never led the entire game and fell behind by as many as 23 points against an Eagles team that entered play with only one ACC victory and hadn't won a game in over a month.
If huge wins over the Tar Heels, Louisville and Duke had NC State trending toward a No. 8 or 9 seed prior to Saturday's loss, the Wolfpack (17-12, 8-8) can no longer feel so secure now. Eight RPI top 100 victories probably would keep NC State in the field as of today, but the Wolfpack no longer have much margin for error with a road game at Clemson and a home game against Syracuse left before the ACC tournament.
If NC State wins both those games and avoids a bad opening-round loss in the ACC tournament, it will likely wrap up a bid no matter how it fares in the ACC quarterfinals. If the Wolfpack suffer a loss in their next two games, merely making the ACC quarterfinals may not be enough to leave them feeling safe on Selection Sunday.
To get the wins it needs, NC State will certainly have to play better than it did Saturday when it was listless and lackadaisical from start to finish. The Wolfpack sank less than one third of their shots at one end and surrendered 24 points to Boston College star Olivier Hanlan and 56.4 percent shooting to the Eagles as a team at the other end.
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The bubble is certainly a familiar place for an NC State team that has made the field as a No. 11, No. 8 and No. 12 seed the past three years despite entering the NCAA tournament with double-digit losses each of those seasons.
A more relaxing Selection Sunday appeared possible for NC State after the North Carolina win. No so much anymore.
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK ROSE SATURDAY
BYU (23-8, 13-5 WCC): BYU was an NCAA tournament-caliber team without an NCAA tournament-caliber profile entering play Saturday. By ending Gonzaga's three-year home win streak with a 73-70 victory, the Cougars took a huge step toward changing that. The win over the Zags represents BYU's lone RPI top 50 win this season, but the Cougars do have decent wins over Stanford, UMass and Saint Mary's to go with it. They're also in the KenPom top 30 due in part to a slew of near-misses against Utah, San Diego State and Purdue, among others. Whether the committee overlooks BYU's lack of quality wins and focuses on other aspects of its profile will go a long way toward determining the Cougars' fate. They probably have to get to the WCC title game and face Gonzaga there to have a decent shot at an at-large.
Boise State (22-7, 12-4 MWC): Could the Mountain West possibly get three NCAA tournament bids in a down year for that conference? It's suddenly conceivable after Boise State snapped first-place San Diego State's 29-game home winning streak Saturday night to get the marquee win it needed and move into a tie for the conference lead. The Broncos are certainly no lock, but they now boast a season sweep of the Aztecs to go along with a home win over Colorado State. That's enough to earn Boise State consideration despite bad losses to Fresno State and Loyola (Ill.). Finishing the season with wins over San Jose State and Fresno State is a must for the Broncos. Then they'll probably need at least one win in the Mountain West tournament as well.
St. John's (20-9, 9-7 Big East): It's getting tougher to envision St. John's not making the NCAA tournament. The Red Storm have overcome a 1-4 start to Big East play with six wins in their last seven games culminating in an 81-70 victory over Georgetown on Saturday in their home finale. Nine RPI top 100 victories including sweeps of both Providence and Xavier have St. John's trending toward a No. 9 seed or so entering the final week of the regular season. If the Johnnies can win at either Marquette or Villanova next week, they may be securely in the field of 68 regardless of how they fare in the Big East tournament.
Dayton (22-6, 12-4 A-10): It's a disservice to Dayton to list the Flyers as a bubble team any longer. They're likely playing for seeding from this point forward after a 59-55 win at Atlantic 10 co-leader VCU. Despite only having six scholarship players and nobody taller than 6-foot-6, Dayton could take the outright lead in the Atlantic 10 if it beats Rhode Island at home Tuesday and Davidson loses one of its next two. The Flyers have quality wins against Texas A&M, Ole Miss and now VCU and no bad losses besides a head-scratcher against Duquesne earlier this month. That's a strong enough profile to get Dayton off the bubble and trending toward a No. 8 seed or so.
LSU (21-8, 10-6 SEC): The Tigers crept closer to securing an NCAA tournament bid by picking up a quality win on Saturday in Baton Rouge. They rallied to defeat fellow bubble team Ole Miss 73-63, completing a season sweep of the Rebels. Horrible league losses against Missouri, Auburn and Mississippi State weigh down LSU's profile, but the Tigers are 10-5 against the RPI top 100 including an outstanding win at West Virginia back in December. They have a home game against Tennessee and a road game at Arkansas left before the SEC tournament. Win one, and they should feel pretty confident.
Other bubble winners: Rhode Island (59-56 at La Salle); Georgia (68-44 vs. Missouri); Cincinnati (63-47 at Tulane); Illinois (86-60 vs. Northwestern); Davidson (77-66 vs. George Washington) Texas A&M (80-55 vs. Auburn).
BUBBLE TEAMS WHOSE STOCK FELL SATURDAY
Texas (17-12, 6-10 Big 12): The monumental win Texas needed was within reach when the Longhorns built a six-point lead midway through the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Perry Ellis then scored 12 of his 28 points in the final nine minutes to lead Kansas to a 69-64 victory and to push Texas to the brink of the NIT. A Longhorns team that spent the first two months of the season in the top 10 is now 1-11 against the RPI top 50 and four games below .500 in league play. All of their losses are to good teams, but that won't matter if they don't get some more wins. Victories at home against Baylor and Kansas State to end the regular season are a must, as is a run in the Big 12 tournament. Anything short of that and Texas will likely be hosting an NIT game in a couple weeks.
Ole Miss (19-10, 10-6 SEC): There's no shame for Ole Miss in losing at LSU on Saturday, but it does reduce the Rebels' margin for error the rest of the way. Quality wins against Arkansas, Cincinnati, Oregon and Texas A&M should keep Ole Miss on the right side of the bubble for now, but ugly losses to Charleston Southern, TCU and Western Kentucky keep the Rebels from getting too comfortable. Yahoo's Brad Evans projects Ole Miss as a No. 10 seed at this point, and that sounds about right to me as well. If the Rebels can close with wins at Alabama and at home against Vanderbilt, they'll be fine.
Xavier (18-12, 8-9 Big East): Had Xavier held a nine-point second-half lead against first-place Villanova on Saturday afternoon, the Musketeers would have wrapped up an NCAA tournament bid. Instead they allowed the Wildcats to bury a barrage of second-half threes and storm back for a 78-66 victory to clinch the Big East title. Where does Xavier stand now with only a game at Creighton left before the Big East tournament? Still in decent shape thanks to a season sweep of Georgetown and single wins over Butler, Providence and Cincinnati. The Musketeers have four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 too, but as long as they don't fall to Creighton in their regular season finale, they have a good chance to slip into the field no matter what they do in the Big East tournament.
Miami (18-11, 8-8 ACC): A vulnerable, fading North Carolina team seemed ripe for Miami to pick off, but the Hurricanes couldn't get the big win they needed. Brice Johnson scored 22 points and grabbed 11 rebounds as the Tar Heels pushed Miami further from the cutline with a 73-64 road victory. The Hurricanes have two road games left before the ACC tournament, one at fellow bubble team Pittsburgh and the other at Virginia Tech. Both are critical for Miami unless it wants to have to make a deep ACC tournament run. A win over Duke boosts Miami's chances, but the Hurricanes have only six RPI top 100 wins, and two of those are Florida and Clemson. Plus, Miami has some bad losses, by 28 against Eastern Kentucky and by 20 against Georgia Tech especially.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
