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Shutdown Corner: The great Jamaal Charles leads the Chiefs again

 

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 12: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I think most people are aware of how great Jamaal Charles is, but it's still fun to examine how incredible he has been.

Charles, who ranked 12th on the NFL Network's top 100 list for this year, is the main reason the Kansas City Chiefs have been a playoff contender and are this high on the countdown. He doesn't get the buzz of Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch, or maybe even Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray, but he's absolutely dominant.

Charles hasn't exactly been running through wide-open lanes created because opponents respect the Chiefs' great passing game. Here's Kansas City's passing ranks each of Charles' seven seasons, counting back from 2014: 29th, 24th, 32nd, 25th, 30th, 25th, 20th. Woof. Charles' 2,266 career receiving yards have boosted those ranks, as well. Yet here's Charles' yards per carry each season, counting backwards: 5.0, 5.0, 5.3, 6.9, 6.4, 5.9, 5.3. Only eight running backs in the history of the NFL have posted a career average of 5 yards or better. Charles has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry over a season, even though he has had practically no help from Kansas City's passing game to loosen things up for him.

(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto)
(Graphic by Amber Matsumoto)

Charles averages 5.5 yards per carry through his career. Only Marion Motley, whose career ended 60 years ago, has a better average among all running backs in NFL history. The player trailing Charles in the rankings is far behind him, at 5.2. That would be Jim Brown.

We're seeing a Canton-level career from Charles. But here's something Charles has never accomplished: win a playoff game. He's 0-2. And he needs help to change that.

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The Chiefs famously were so meager in the passing game last season that, somehow, they didn't get one touchdown from a wide receiver all year. The last team that could say that was the 1964 Giants. In today's passing league, that's an unbelievable stat.

There's plenty of blame to go around. The receivers? Yep, they weren't very good. Alex Smith? Probably too conservative at times. Andy Reid? Probably too conservative, too.

The Chiefs weren't changing their quarterback or coach, so they signed a legitimate receiver. Jeremy Maclin came over from the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency. Maclin has 36 touchdowns in five years. The last time a Chiefs receiver scored a regular-season touchdown was a 2-yard bubble screen to Dexter McCluster on Dec. 29, 2013 at San Diego. Maclin will end the streak shortly after the season starts.

So the Chiefs are a little better in the passing game, and outside linebacker Justin Houston is a happy man with his $101 million deal. Are the Chiefs good enough to take the next step? The Chiefs are 20-12 under Reid, though that was bolstered by a 9-0 start in 2013 that was fueled by one of the weakest schedules you'll ever see. They seem like the "good enough" team, good enough to win games and be competitive but not good enough to really be a contender in the AFC.

Maybe a better passing game helps them get over that hump. It would be a shame if Charles starts to fade before he gets a chance to experience postseason glory.

2014 review in less than 25 words: The Chiefs were 7-3 and then stumbled down the stretch, including a really bad loss to an 0-10 Raiders team.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? Maclin raises the grade. Safety Tyvon Branch was always a productive player with the Raiders when healthy, as well. They did lose receiver Dwayne Bowe, though he hadn't made much noise for three straight seasons, and the big loss was center Rodney Hudson. Since the Chiefs receivers were so underwhelming last year, the upgrade from Bowe to Maclin alone makes the roster better.

Jeremy Maclin (Getty Images)
Jeremy Maclin (Getty Images)

Best offseason acquisition:

It's funny, had Maclin gone to a team like the Broncos or Colts, it would be a really nice addition but it wouldn't seem like an enormous deal. But because he signed with a team that was so historically inept at the wideout position, he's viewed as a savior.

Achilles' heel: I'm not sure how many different ways I can explain how the passing game is holding the Chiefs back. Other teams have won big without airing it out the past few years, like the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. But of the bottom 11 teams in passing yards last season, 10 didn't make the playoffs.

Position in flux: We can be positive when it comes to the Maclin addition. Then you look at the rest of the receiving depth chart and you really wonder how the Chiefs passed on all those talented receivers in the 2014 draft for outside linebacker Dee Ford. Or how they didn't draft a receiver with either of their first two picks this year. They did get Chris Conley in the third round, and he's an interesting case. He had a combine for the ages, but he had just one 100-yard game as a senior at Georgia and wasn't even an all-SEC honorable mention pick. If athleticism is what matters most in the NFL, it'll be a good pick. He could be the Chiefs' No. 2 receiver with a good camp, simply because there's not much competition. De'Anthony Thomas, Jason Avant and Albert Wilson are battling to be the second receiver. Yeah.

Ready to break out: if there's a name on that list of competitors for the No. 2 receiver job that could have a nice season, it's probably Wilson. As a rookie last year, the 5-9 Wilson had 12 catches for 209 yards from Week 14-16. The opportunity is there for Wilson to build on that.

Stat fact: The Chiefs were really good against the pass last season. They ranked second in passing yards allowed, tied for third in yards allowed per pass and second in completion percentage allowed. Losing top cornerback Sean Smith to a three-game suspension doesn't help but they do have depth at the position, including first-round pick Marcus Peters.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Chiefs start at Houston, which isn't easy, then face the Broncos, play at Green Bay and at Cincinnati. Based on 2014 records the Chiefs are tied for the seventh toughest schedule in the NFL. It's really challenging early on.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: There's enough skepticism about the Broncos that the AFC West doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion, and the Chiefs are probably first in line if the Broncos fall. If Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce lift the passing game a bit, Charles and Knile Davis give the Chiefs a great 1-2 running punch and the defense led by Houston is good again, the Chiefs can win the division.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: If Charles slips a bit, the offense might go with him. Alex Smith is fine but he's not going to carry a team by himself. The Chiefs are well coached and the defense is solid so it would take a lot of bad luck for them to tumble too far down the standings. But a playoff berth is a reasonable expectation, and another year without a playoff berth might cause Chiefs fans to wonder where the team is really headed with this core.

The crystal ball says: I don't think the Chiefs will knock off the Broncos this year, and the AFC is fairly deep when it comes to the wild-card contenders. I think Kansas City will repeat last season: a winning season and no playoff berth.

Previous previews
32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
30. Washington Redskins
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
25. Cleveland Browns
24. Atlanta Falcons
23. San Francisco 49ers
22. New York Giants
21. New Orleans Saints
20. Houston Texans
19. Carolina Panthers
18. St. Louis Rams
17. Minnesota Vikings
16. San Diego Chargers
15. Buffalo Bills
14. Detroit Lions
13. Philadelphia Eagles

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!