NCAA hockey tournament preview: Another wide-open field

It's not really fun or interesting to say “Any team could win this thing” — and it's also not true — but almost any team could win this thing.

There are so many teams in the field of 16 this season that can absolutely steal a game from a higher seed or fend off tough competition from a lower one just as easily as they could lose. While a 16-team field obviously produces eight “favorites,” you probably wouldn't be too wise to bet on the chalk in this one.

Let's first consider the No. 1 overall team Minnesota State Mavericks. They reigned supreme this year with the best record in college hockey (29-7-3) behind the best possession game in the country. Now, would they win 29 games if their conference didn't feature three teams from the bottom eight on a national basis? Obviously not. They played Alabama-Huntsville, Lake Superior State, and Alaska Anchorage a combined eight times this season, and predictably won them all (34-7 on aggregate in fact), so that helps pad out the ol' winning percentage. But this is a good team that would have competed in any conference.

But the Mavs have some concerns. Stephon Williams has a .926 save percentage this season, which is very good and certainly more than enough for his team to win most nights given how much they dominate — he only faces about 22 shots a night — but then again how hard is it to beat the dregs of the WCHA every night? This statement can, in point of fact, be applied to the larger group. There really shouldn't be a problem with lowly RIT in the first game of the tournament, but beyond that it's hard to believe that even, say, a middling Nebraska-Omaha

Then there's No. 2 North Dakota, which I've written about before. I don't think they're that great, and that was borne out in their conference tournament. They have a very good goalie, but the rest of the team — especially sans Mark MacMillan — seems rather pedestrian, which is why they lost both the semifinal and consolation game in the NCHC by a combined score of 8-2. Can they win this tournament? Absolutely, because Zane McIntyre is good enough to steal four games in a row more or less by himself. Can they also flame out in the regional? Oh my, yes.

BU is another very good team. Solid defense, good goaltending, best offense in the country. But the fact that they went from 10 wins last season to 25 so far this year is wholly dependent upon Jack Eichel. When he's on — which includes the vast, vast majority of games he's played this year — he can literally just decide that he's going to make three great individual plays, and BU will win behind it. That's what happened in the Hockey East final, where a good but not great Lowell team gave the Terriers a fight (in theory) but Eichel had a goal and a nice assist in the first 15 minutes, and the game was over for all intents and purposes. This is the kind of game-changing talent he has, and he can use it to great effect. But if you can keep Eichel off the scoresheet — and look, it's no small task — then BU becomes very, very beatable. Will it happen? Probably not. Can it? Sure.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Miami is in a tough spot. They won the NCHC, which was unquestionably the best conference in the country this year (six of its eight teams made the tournament on strength of schedule), but what they'll be in this tournament is anyone's guess. That's because while they're very much cut from the same cloth as Mankato — great possession, but only good-ish goaltending — they're also missing two key players. Riley Barber got hurt in the NCHC title game and will almost certainly not play, and Blake Coleman picked up a one-game ban for taking too many game misconducts this season (that after he scored a hat trick in 35 minutes in said league championship).

What does Miami look like without Barber and Coleman? It's tough to say, but the answer can't be a good one for the RedHawks. Add in the fact that they're playing a tough-to-score-on Providence College club, in Providence, and things get tougher. Add in that Miami coach Rico Blasi has seen his team eliminated by Hockey East schools in every NCAA tournament trip its made, and that's not a recipe for optimism.

There are other great teams sprinkled throughout the field. Harvard, for example, was briefly the No. 1 team in the country this season before injuries and PDO regression caused them to drop a bunch around midseason. But since Patrick McNally came back from the bang-up that cost him 16 games, Harvard is 4-1-0, outscoring opponents 15-10. Without him in the lineup, the Crimson were just 7-8-1. With him, it was 14-4-2. They'll be a tough out, and they're the No. 9 seed.

Other teams that have a very legitimate shot to at least make the Frozen Four include Denver, Duluth, Minnesota, BC, Yale, Providence, and Quinnipiac. Any of them making it through the regionals would come as no surprise to me. This is because most of the teams in this field are very good but also very flawed in a few ways (which we'll explore below).

So as I said it last week in the conference tournament previews, and I'll say it again here: I'm sorry. You want to hear that so-and-so is The Clear Favorite, and that just isn't the case again this year. I guess that's good for college hockey as a whole. It's certainly good for the entertainment factor in this tournament. What it isn't good for is “writing interesting previews.” My apologies.

Meet the field...

No. 1 Minnesota State Mavericks (29-7-3)

Key stat: They had a 57.7 percent corsi-for at even strength this season, which was No. 1 in the country by more than a full percentage point. They attempted the 11th-most shots in the country, and allowed the fifth-fewest. Hell of a system by Mike Hastings.

Top player: It's probably Bryce Gervais, who finished second in the nation in goals at 27. Sure, it was on just 120 shots (tied for 41st) and he only had nine assists, but it's hard to argue with 27 goals. That's a lot.

NHL draft picks: 5 (Pittsburgh's Teddy Blueger; Winnipeg's C.J. Franklin; Nashville's Zach Stepan; San Jose's Max Gaede; and the New York Islanders' Stephon Williams)

Quick fact: Stephon Williams' .927 save percentage is up 65 points from last year's .862. That's a nice little turnaround.

No. 2 North Dakota (27-9-3)

Key stat: They've lost three of their last five games (and their two wins over Colorado College should barely count because CC was downright awful this year). That's after starting the season 25-6-3. Is it regression?

Top player: Zane McIntyre is where the “North Dakota for national champion” argument begins and ends. He had a .932 save percentage heading into last weekend before his team imploded in front of him, but .857 in the last two might strike some as a point of concern. Is that regression too?

NHL draft picks: 14 (Chicago's Nick Schmaltz, Luke Johnson, and Nick Mattson; St. Louis's Jordan Schmaltz and Austin Poganski; Philadelphia's Michael Parks; Montreal's Mark MacMillan; Los Angeles's Paul LaDue; Tampa's Brendan O'Donnell; Winnipeg's Tucker Poolman; Anaheim's Keaton Thompson; San Jose's Gage Ausmus; Nashville's Wade Murphy; Boston's Zane McIntyre)

Quick fact: If you allege, as I have, that North Dakota isn't the odds-on favorite, their fans will rend their clothes and find a moon at which to howl for your blood. This ignores the fact that they aren't and shouldn't be the odds-on favorite.

No. 3 Boston University Terriers (25-7-5)

Key stat: When Jack Eichel was killing penalties this year, BU allowed just seven power play goals. They scored six shorties. Pretty good goal differential there.

Top player: That Eichel kid. First in points (66) and points per game (1.83), first in assists (42) and assists per game (1.17). Only fifth in goals (24) and fourth in goals per game (0.67), though. So he's not even that good, if you ask me.

NHL draft picks: 7 (San Jose's Danny O'Regan; Boston's Matt Grzelcyk; Calgary's Brandon Hickey; Ottawa's Robbie Baillargeon; Tampa's John MacLeod; New York Islanders' Doyle Somerby; Toronto's J.J. Piccinich)

Quick fact: A lot has been made of BU's depth in recent weeks but it's not that great. A few guys are very good and Matt O'Connor's having a nice season, but they're not even in the NCAA tournament conversation without Eichel. Pretty simple, really. He's that good. The good news for BU is he's still on their team until Buffalo (or whoever) signs him this summer, which they will. He could win them a national title more or less by himself. The odds that anyone shuts him down seem low.

No. 4 Miami University RedHawks (25-13-1)

Key stat: Their 54.1 percent corsi number was the best among NCHC teams, and their systems are a big reason why they won the postseason tournament. They have a lot of talent, and those players do exactly what Blasi wants. It's terrifying when it all works well.

Top player: Austin Czarnik somehow only had nine goals this season — probably because he was too busy setting up Riley Barber's 20 — but his 34 points speaks to just how much of a difference-maker he can be. Mega-skilled, and he almost never comes off the ice.

NHL draft picks: 6 (Washington's Riley Barber; New Jersey's Blake Coleman; Chicago's Anthony Louis; San Jose's Sean Kuraly; Minnesota's Louie Belpedio; Montreal's Colin Sullivan)

Quick fact: Blasi, for some reason, almost never settles on a goaltender until late in the season, and this year it's Jay Williams (.922), which is smart because Ryan McKay's .899 is awful. That indecision probably cost Miami a few key games. But now things are much harder to predict with both Barber and Coleman, who both scored 20 goals this season, out for at least the opening game.

No. 5 University of Denver Pioneers (23-13-2)

Key stat: The top two scorers on this team are Danton Heinen and Trevor Moore, a freshman and sophomore, respectively. No. 3 is senior defenseman Joey LaLeggia. They're one of only four teams in the tournament without a junior or senior forward in their top three in scoring (BC, Omaha, and Yale are the others).

Top player: It's LaLeggia. He has 13 goals and 38 points in 35 games, good for the second-best points-per-game in the nation among defensemen. His goals per game was also second in the country. In short, he is good.

NHL draft picks: 7 (Boston's Danton Heinen; Edmonton's Joey LaLeggia; Ottawa's Quentin Shore; Arizona's Zac Larraza; Colorado's Wil Butcher; Montreal's Josiah Didier; Florida's Evan Cowley)

Quick fact: If Denver can get a lead on you, the game is basically over: They're 15-3 when scoring the first goal, 11-1 when leading after the first period, and a stunning 19-0 when leading through two.

No. 6 University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs (20-15-3)

Key stat: None of Duluth's players scored more than 28 points this season, but six had at least 20. Seven more had at least 13. Despite those unimpressive numbers, they still managed the 22nd-best offense in the country. So I guess you could say that's a pretty balanced attack.

Top player: By default I guess you have to say it's Kasimir Kaskisuo, who played all but four games this season and posted a respectable .915 save percentage. He didn't need to be great; he faced just 910 shots in nearly 2,000 minutes.

NHL draft picks: 4 (Toronto's Tony Cameranesi and Dominic Toninato; Anaheim's Andy Welinski; Minnesota's Carson Soucy)

Quick fact: Duluth went 14-12-2 against teams in the tournament this season, which means they only played 11 games against non-tournament teams. That's a crazy number, even for an NCHC team this season, because it includes eight OOC dates with tournament teams.

No. 7 Michigan Tech University Huskies (29-9-2)

Key stat: Michigan Tech started the year 10-0, meaning that it went 19-9-2 the rest of the way. Four of those losses and one of those ties were against Minnesota State, the only other WCHA team in the tournament.

Top player: Goaltender Jamie Phillips went .935 in 2,349 minutes this season, and has been one of the best goalies in the country for much of the season. In furtherance of the above point about their record versus Mankato: 15 of the 67 goals he allowed all season came in those five games.

NHL draft picks: 3 (Winnipeg's Jamie Phillips; New Jersey's Blake Pietila; San Jose's Cliff Watson)

Quick fact: Senior forward Tanner Kero (19 goals, 26 assists) was in on 31.6 percent of all Tech goals this season. He also committed just five minor penalties all season.

No. 8 University of Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (18-12-6)

Key stat: Omaha is another NCHC team that rode poor possession numbers (48.4 percent corsi) and a big PDO (101.8) to a winning record.

Top player: Ryan Massa is the big reason that PDO is so high: His even-strength save percentage was .943. Last year he was .899 overall, so I guess you could say he figured out how to improve his save percentage by like 40 points last summer. Definitely sustainable.

NHL draft picks: 7 (Pittsburgh's Jake Guentzel; Edmonton's Tyler Vesel; Minnesota's Avery Peterson; Anaheim's Brian Cooper; Chicago's Luc Snuggerud; Detroit's David Pope; Winnipeg's Tanner Lane)

Quick fact: The Mavericks will get senior two-way forward Dominic Zombo back this weekend after he missed 10 games with an injury. His numbers (5-9-14 in 26 games) don't jump off the page, but he's another "glue guy" that people who see UNO often say was sorely missed. Their 2-5-3 record without him might be a good indicator of that.

No. 9 Harvard Crimson (21-12-3)

Key stat: I don't want to say No. 1 defenseman Patrick McNally (who had 21 points in 20 games) is critical to Harvard's game plan, but they lost four of 20 when he was in the lineup, and eight of 16 without him.

Top player: Jimmy Vesey leads the nation in goals with 30 in 36 games, but here's a crazy stat: 23 of them were at even strength. No one else had more than 19 at evens.

NHL draft picks: 10 (Nashville's Jimmy Vesey; New Jersey's Alexander Kerfoot; Vancouver's Patrick McNally; Buffalo's Sean Malone; Tampa's Brian Hart; San Jose's Colin Blackwell; Toronto's Max Everson; Boston's Wiley Sherman; Minnesota's Steve Michalek; Philadelphia's Merrick Madsen)

Quick fact: Can college players suppress shot quality? Let's ask Steve Michalek, who went .937 before the McNally injury, .906 during it, and .935 after. Haha, that's alright.

No. 10 University of Minnesota Golden Gophers (23-12-3)

Key stat: People act like Minnesota is bad but they're maybe one of the most talented teams in the country. If Adam Wilcox was a little better this season (only .913 after being .932 last year), they probably win at least three more games and we're not talking about how disappointing the Gophers are.

Top player: Mike Reilly has 42 points in 38 games from the blue line, which is good for the 22nd-best points per game of any player nationwide. He's also the only defenseman to lead an NCAA tournament team in scoring this season, which I guess isn't a surprise.

NHL draft picks: 15 (Columbus's Mike Reilly, Seth Ambroz, and Ryan Collins; New York Islanders' Taylor Cammarata and Jake Bischoff; Buffalo's Hudson Fasching and Christian Isackson; Florida's Kyle Rau; Washington's Travis Boyd; San Jose's Michael Brodzinski; Detroit's Ben Marshall; New York Rangers' Brady Skjei; Winnipeg's Jack Glover; Tampa's Adam Wilcox; Los Angeles's Steve Johnson)

Quick fact: Did you read that thing earlier this week about, “How many points would Jonathan Toews score if he wasn't so focused on defense?” Kyle Rau is one of those guys, just amazing in his own zone and unstoppable at the dot (56-percent against top competition). And he still had 20 goals and 41 points this season.

No. 11 Boston College Eagles (21-13-3)

Key stat: Johnny Gaudreau had more points last year than the team's top three scorers (Alex Tuch, Adam Gilmour, and Ryan Fitzgerald) put up this season, combined: 80-78.

Top player: I'm gonna go with draft-eligible defenseman Noah Hanifin. He had 5-18-23 this season but that's not his true contribution to the club: He's an elite puck-moving defenseman at this level, as beautiful a skater as you're ever going to see. And the way he uses his stick to break up plays is second-to-none. And he's the second-youngest player in the country.

NHL draft picks: 9 (Minnesota's Alex Tuch and Adam Gilmour; Florida's Michael Matheson and Ian McCoshen; Boston's Ryan Fitzgerald; Washington's Zach Sanford; Chicago's Chris Calnan; New Jersey's Steve Santini; Vancouver's Thatcher Demko)

Quick fact: Tin terms of pure talent, the back end for the Eagles is probably the best in the nation. Four defensemen who are drafted in the first 42 picks or will be, plus a goalie who went 36th overall last summer.

No. 12 St. Cloud State University Huskies (19-18-1)

Key stat: The Huskies have the fifth-best power play in the country, with 36 of their 105 goals overall coming on the man advantage. Their 68 even-strength goals is only tied for 34th in the nation.

Top player: Jonny Brodzinski I guess. He had 20 goals, but 11 of those were on the power play. A power-play shooting percentage of 28.2 is sustainable, right?

NHL draft picks: 4 (Los Angeles's Jonny Brodzinski; Buffalo's Judd Peterson; Nashville's Nick Oliver; Colorado's Ben Storm)

Quick fact: They let a team that was one game over .500 into the NCAA tournament because their conference was really good. But no the PWR isn't stupid at all, no sir.

No. 13 Yale Bulldogs (18-9-5)

Key stat: No one on this team has more than 21 points. That seems impossible but it's true.

Top player: Alex Lyon is the reason the above stat almost doesn't matter: .939 overall (the best in the country), .943 at evens. Now, he's only faced 807 shots this year — might as well bring some homework out to the crease most nights — but his 49 goals conceded is the fewest of anyone who played at least two-thirds of their team's minutes.

NHL draft picks: 3 (Boston's Rob O'Gara; Chicago's John Hayden; Vancouver's Matthew Beattie)

Quick fact: No stiffer test for Yale based on their credentials than the first-round matchup. They have the best defense in the country, and BU has the best offense. Immovable object, irresistible force, etc.

No. 14 Quinnipiac University Bobcats (23-11-4)

Key stat: The Bobcats are a nearly perfect possession team. They allow just under 37 attempts per game at evens, and take close to 48. Their corsi-for of 56.3 percent is consequently the second-best in the country.

Top player: Let's say it's Matthew Peca (even though it's not). He's a dominant possession forward, and basically everything he does should create some concerns for opponents. But at the same time, he only has seven goals on 102 shots this year, down from 12 on 112. That is, shall we say, less imposing.

NHL draft picks: 3 (Tampa's Matthew Peca; New York Islanders' Devon Toews; Arizona's Connor Clifton)

Quick fact: The big issue is that there's almost no chance Sam Anas plays this weekend. Anas is the team's actual best player, with 23 goals and 16 assists in 37 games, but got injured in the first period of Quinnipiac's critical Game 3 against Union two weeks ago. He didn't dress for the ECAC title game against Harvard, either, which is a big reason the Bobcats got an at-large instead of an autobid.

No. 15 Providence College Friars (22-13-2)

Key stat: Providence's 104 goals in 31 games were 28th in the country, but their 74 goals against was fourth. As a team, the Friars shot just 6.5 percent at 5-on-5 in score-close situations this year. The team save percentage of .941 at evens helped.

Top player: Jon Gillies and it's not close. He played almost 91 percent of the team's minutes and posted an even-strength save percentage of .942. In terms of pure ability, he's probably the best goalie in the country.

NHL draft picks: 7 (Calgary's Mark Jankowski, John Gilmour, and John Gillies; Washington's Brian Pinho; Buffalo's Anthony Florentino; St. Louis's Jake Walman; Buffalo's Mark Adams)

Quick fact: Two defensemen — Walman and Tom Parisi — lead the team in shot attempts with a combined 269. Providence is the only team in the tournament for which two defensemen generate the most corsi events. Only two others (BC and Minnesota) even had a defenseman in the team lead.

No. 16 Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers (19-14-5)

Key stat: RIT had a 54.3 percent corsi rating this season. In six non-conference games, though, they were out-attempted 307-245 (44.4 percent). That means they went 56.8 percent against Atlantic Hockey teams.

Top player: Senior Matt Grabowsky is this year's “guy from Atlantic Hockey who has a gaudy point total that would impress you if it were in any other conference.” Almost a third of his games were multiple-point nights. Out-of-conference scoring: 1-1-2 in six games.

NHL draft picks: None

Quick fact: They're playing the best possession team in the country. This could get ugly.

Schedule (all times Eastern)

Friday

2 p.m.: No. 2 Boston University vs. No. 13 Yale; Manchester, N.H.; ESPNU

4:30 p.m.: No. 7 Michigan Tech vs. No. 12 St. Cloud State; Fargo, N.D.; ESPN3

5 p.m.: No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth vs. No. 10 Minnesota; Manchester; ESPNU

8 p.m.: No. 2 North Dakota vs. No. 14 Quinnipiac; Fargo; ESPNU

Saturday

3 p.m.: No. 5 Denver vs. No. 11 Boston College; Providence, R.I.; ESPN2

4 p.m.: No. 1 Minnesota State vs. No. 16 RIT; South Bend, Indiana; ESPNU

5:30 p.m.: Northeast regional final; Manchester; ESPN2

6:30 p.m.: No. 4 Miami vs. No 15 Providence College; Providence; ESPNU

7:30 p.m.: No. 8 Nebraska-Omaha vs. No. 9 Harvard; South Bend; ESPN3

9 p.m.: West regional final; Fargo; ESPNU

Sunday
5 p.m.: East regional final; Providence; ESPNU

7:30 p.m.: Midwest regional final; South Bend; ESPNU

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist and also covers the NCAA for College Hockey News. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

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