• Arsenal Message Board

  • Raider Raider Jun 14, 2013 11:13 Flag

    Players Valuation

    How difficult is it working out the true value of a player?

    If you buy a house you look at what other property has gone for in the local area which gives a guideline but with players it doesn't work that way.

    Lets look at players like Aspas whos 25 and gone to Liverpool for 7.7 million and Shurrle whos 22 and now at Chelsea for 18 million.
    Would you say that Fellaini who has a release clause at 23 million is more valueable then either of these players or he is equal in value to Jovetic who has been priced similar to Fellaini?

    The point I am making is there is a big difference between a release clause and the value of a player but working out the value aspect is very difficult.

    I am not deffending Wenger here but when you are Chelsea or City you can spend 5 million more then the player is worth and not flinch OR in the case of Torres and Carrol 20 million.

    I dont blame Wenger for trying to get a better deal then what's on offer and trying to buy a player for his true value is hard especially when you don't have an accurate yard stick to measure buy.

    For Wenger things have now changed and he has to take risks with the valuation of players and if it means paying more then you wanted, it's a step he will need to take.

    Chelsea, City, Utd are buying big again and when Spuds sell Bale for 85 million they will have money to spend.

    So despite the valuation of players going through the roof, it's a question of having to play ball with them or loose out bigger in the long run!

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    • Good post and a football post!! Thank you.

      To me I would go with what a player is worth to the buying club. Take RVP, he might have been worth 25-30 to Man U since with him they bought the PL title. I doubt he would have been worth 25-30 to Bayern. For me whether it is Higuain or Jovetic or any striker likely to be more talented than Giroud, they are worth quite a lot and to us and probably more than they would be worth to Man U who have a lot of depth at striker.

      If a player is expected to improve the squad meaningfully a "premium" or "reach" should be considered IMO. In our case I would be much less likely to pay a premium for an attacking midfield player given our depth at that position than I would for a central striker since we only have Giroud at that position. 10 more PL goals could well have gotten us 2nd or 3rd and that alone should have or is worth a premium over 4th.

      On Fellaini I find him hard to fit into our squad, although I read he would be transformed to a defensive midfield role which he is said to prefer. I don't think we would have to pay that much for a solid DM player no matter how much we need to find a replacement for Diaby or at least no matter how much we need a defensive midfield player. I would think we could buy a defensive midfield player for 15-20.

      I think we will have to be willing to pay 25 million for a striker, and 10 for a keeper.

    • "I dont blame Wenger for trying to get a better deal then what's on offer and trying to buy a player for his true value is hard especially when you don't have an accurate yard stick to measure buy." ?

      Don't presume that Arsenal are interested in signing Fellaini or Jovetic just because the papers say so. We were constantly linked with M'Villa in the last few transfer windows to the extent that one would conclude that it's not if but when would announce his signing. Additionally, Arsenal are very secretive about their targets and don't conduct their dealings in public. I think people need to be mindful of that and the fact that that it's the closed season and the papers are desperate to fill their columns with any nonsense they can get their hands on, including make-believe rumours. Furthermore, would Jovetic, a player who scored less than Benteke and Giroud last season, really improve Arsenal that much? I hope players like him are way down in Wenger's list of top targets for the club. We need better in order to seriously challenge for honours in the coming season, imo.

    • There's a bit of comparison that can be used as a guide, but unless there is a written rules book on how to value something, essentially a player or property is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it.

      Torres £50m? heh

      • 1 Reply to John
      • Quite true, the value of anything in this world is the amount that someone is willing to pay.

        In the UK City and Chelski have the upper hand, even United would fail to outbid these two if it really came to it.
        A list of the 'top 10 loss making flops' is on The Sun website, it's made up mainly of transfers by City, Chelsea and Man Utd. Ferguson and Mourinho have made some hugely expensive mistakes!

        Great management?