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  • Hobitez Hobitez Jan 29, 2013 09:58 Flag

    How do you measure progress and what is acceptable?

    I know we all want a top 4 finish and we know that is the target but I wonder what everyone would deem a succesful season and what they would consider progress.

    For me, at the start of the season after we let Kuyt, Carroll, Maxi, Bellamy,Aquilani and Adam go without bringing in the reinforcements I knew it was a hiding to nothing year. The bravery of BR to bring Sterling, Suso, Wisdom and co into the fold guaranteed patience in my eyes whilst bringing in some young signings to replace the old guard. My view was that if we finished in the same place then it would be deemed progressive as we would achieve the same on a smaller wage bill with players who would grow with a view to improving over time, that hasn't really changed for me.

    To put it in numbers, here are our league stats for the last 2 seasons

    2011-12 - 8th place - 52pts - F47 A40
    2010-11 - 6th place - 58pts - F59 A44

    and here is where we currently lie with 15 games remaining:

    2012-13 - 7th place - 34pts - F40 A28

    if we were to continue the season on average as we have so far, this is our final standings (can't tell you a position!)

    56 pts - F66 A46

    Does that not suggest progress has been made? I think that it is a fair assumption that the young players have progressed sufficiently so far, also that the team is playing better then earlier in the season whilst the squad is notably going to be stronger over the run in. In my humblest of opinions, to finish with 60 points has to be regarded as somewhat of a success considering the level of transition, I don't think it will be enough to finish in the top 4 but it would be a proven improvement with long term prospects.

    Forget what you dream of being and make sure tomorrow is better then today, that is exactly what we have been doing, looking forward to some feedback!

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    • Hobs, think we're on the same page here. A while back after BR came out with a statement that he'd be happy if he at least did better than last term, and he got a lot of guff from people who felt if we got 7th it should be viewed as failure and that our manager had only a mid-table mentality. However right now I'd take any progress and call it success.

      I'd go back further than you and look at Rafa's last 2 season:

      2008-09 - 2nd place- 86pts - F68 A24
      2009-10 - 7th place - 63pts - F61 A35
      2010-11 - 6th place - 58pts - F59 A44
      2011-12 - 8th place - 52pts - F47 A40

      Well it seems pretty clear to me that we've been going downhill so if BR can arrest that and actually start moving us in the other direction, even if just slightly, it would surely be a success.

      I'm often told on here to stop talking about style of play or other factors and judge by results, so maybe we all should. End of the day if we make progression over last year, even small progress it’s a major step in the right direction considering the direction we've been going in for the last 4 years!

      • 3 Replies to dsteer_lfc_68
      • Hi Hobs & Dave

        I'll go further, it doesn't matter to me if we finish 5th, 7th or 10th - the board invested in a young, inexperienced manager and it would be crazy to sack him after one season.

        One disagreement with something you said Dave - he didn't say he would be happy to improve on last year, he said it would be "terrific". I was one of the people who criticised him for that and I stand by it. 7th would be acceptable, not terrific.

      • Losing 34 points in 3 years is an alarming slide! That is an average of 11 wins and a draw less, it might be deemed succesful to just stop the rot! I forgot how mean our defence was back then, I doubt anyone recently has conceded so few goals in a season but that also brings back memories of the workmanlike displays we used to put in. We were defensively organised and set up not to be beat, if anything it was a slight freak we scored so many goals whilst doing so, I guess a lot to do with a peaking Torres/Gerrard partnership.

        I think a manager could have come in and got more points then we have now by being more defensive but it would have been a short term fix, the expansive way we play now is tidying up its mistakes so lays a better foundation for the future, wins more games with a couple of losses here and there but ultimately more points for losing the big cluster of draws.

        IF you are putting points on the board and grinding them out then people complain about style of play, if you are attacking and flowing but not getting the points then they will complain about that too, we seem to now be combining the 2 together which is good enough for me!

      • Good reading guys. I said on the Oldham post that higher than realistic expectation was in part responsible for our huge disappointment and hobs and others here have put it more eloquently and factually. Much patience still required methinks.

    • As printed in the paper today, make up your own minds !!

      This time last year
      January 29, 2012

      Through to the FA Cup fifth round after a memorable 2-1 win over deadly rivals Manchester United.

      Preparing for a League Cup final showdown against Cardiff at Wembley.

      About to go fifth in the Premier League with 38 points from 23 games.

      January 29, 2013

      Knocked out of the FA Cup after a 3-2 fourth-round defeat at League One strugglers Oldham Athletic.
      Out of the League Cup at the third-round stage back in October.

      Seventh in the Premier League with 34 points from 23 games.

      • 2 Replies to andy w
      • Certainly was a rosy picture this time last year, but just a shame it was a little downhill from there. Yes we had the jr cup and a loss at Wembley, but the league form was atrocious.

        Look, I've been a Kenny Dalglish supporter since I was a kid, in fact I'll go a step further and tell you he was a hero to me as a child, so there was nothing I wanted more than Kenny back at the helm and for him take us back to the top. But right or wrong, he was judged by the owners based on league progression, and that progress just was not there.

        What is at question now is whether BR is making any progress. So far signs look good, and if he progresses in the run in his job should be secure. If he suffers a stumble as KD is, then I'm sure the owners will not be happy.

      • Never, you're looking at half a season. Wait til the end of the season for a comparative. Also, everyone makes it sound like we've won every competition since records began!

    • I think if we get more points than last year, or finish in a higher position then that will be progress for me. In view of the fact that we have had a massive player turnover and new manager and playing philosophy we will have done well. Some people on here look at individual results, when it is the season as a whole that we need to look at. By your model - which is a good way of looking at it - we only need 7 wins for the rest of the season. I think we will do that. If we can finish on 65 points that would be a relatively successful season (although it won't bring me any joy). Next season is the real acid test for me.

      • 2 Replies to Loki
      • Loki I see and share your point. Next season is when we'll have no excuses... no new manager to bed in(assuming FSG stays with Rodgers).

        I'll not say "next season is our season", as thats foolhardly. We've a huge mountain to climb still..

        I think 5th place in the league next season is do-able provided we sign better players who'll slot right into the pass & move ethos Rodgers wants. We still need a few hardmen in the team especially against the likes of Stoke.

      • Agreed, I think we will finish with both more points and a higher position, not by much but 7th place is where we are at and we are certainly better then the teams below us and I dont really see Arsenal or Everton as being any stronger then us whilst Chelsea/Spurs might just be a bit too far ahead given our poor start.

        It is crazy to think we just need 6 wins in the next 15 games to improve on last season, shows how bad a second half we had. I am thinking we will pick up more like 24 points out of that which is 7 wins 3 draws and 5 defeats, not world beating but as a minimum expectation it may well have to do!

        Next season scares me where most would find comfort, I know BR can coach kids, I know he has a good footballing blueprint and he can definitely talk the talk. This is the window we have been told we will be strongly reinforcing but there is just no indication where or how that plan is to be exacted, it could be his Kenny spending disaster or it could be his and our making. It would be heartbreaking to see another huge financial commitment from the board go unwarranted, this time it has to be near enough perfect.

    • Ok then in terms of league points we've not really progressed..

      However the young players will have improved chiefly because they had to..and we had no choice but to play them, as no money was given to buy quality replacements.

      So with that consideration yes there's been improvement but on an individual basis of certain young players.

    • interesting way of looking at it Hobs. Not the way I had in mind but it works if people want to see numbers on the ground.

      I'm looking at it in a subjective kind of way where I look at the squad and the players in it.

      last year and for many years beforehand we had a squad which was completely out of balance. It ontained players that simply didn't play, weren't suited to each other and certainly not suited to the way Rodgers wants to play. That is now being turned around, slowly but surely. I'm encouraged that evry new player that's arriving at Anfield is a fit for what the squad needs and the way Rodgers wants the team to play.

      There's still players to leave and holes to fill but I'm now starting to see a squad that is built to play in one way. Their strengths as players are suited to that style and therefore they compliment each other. Beforehand that whole side of the club was a mess.

      So if we can consolidate into that style of play this year, then every addition to the squad from here on in only makes us stronger and that means more points etc.

      • 1 Reply to Colyn
      • I think numbers on the board are quite important, last year we still played some excellent football but didnt get the points or goals our performances were deserving off, created the most chances and had the most shots but ultimately were not good enough to finish them off. Nobody remembers if we played well, they just remember the table. We are playing, I would say, much better football then last year but we have more conviction about us, more so in the last 10-12 games then the first.

        I know there is a few of us happy with the direction but I think the post makes a good argument to those BR knockers, would like to see what they have to say in argument, I doubt it will be very substantial.

    • Hobs...u say "all fart no poo was the Kenny chapter 2 Liverpool"
      OK well we will just have to wait till the half way point next season and then compare the record of ALL FART NO POO KENNY and the current incumbent...would that be fair if we compare their records at that point. One thing" All fart no poo Kenny" defo has over Rogers where our club is concerned is a past track record of success both as one of the greatest some say The Greatest player ever to have strode onto the Anfield turf and one of our greatest ever managers gong by success to games in charge his ration is best ever at our club. Before he arrived he was equally as revered at CELTIC as he became at Anfield. Currently Im not impressed with Rogers or his track record either as a player or a manager. BUT Im NOT calling for the mans head Im being...patient... at least let me say till the half way point next season....then he will have had the same amount of time and likely the same amount of money as Kenny
      to turn things around.

    • That isnt particularly relevant though really is it?! :)

      I imagine that formula would make Roberto Di Matteo the greatest Chelsea Manager of all time! If not, the greatest manager to have ever lived.

    • Progress isn`t just about points and position, its also about how big is the gap between you and those teams you wish to overhaul. On that front its a bit of a mixed bag. The gap between Liverpool in 7th and Spurs in 4th is only 7 points and that, depending on who makes the best buys in the summer, could be bridged next season. What is going to be a lot harder is to make up the gap between CL qualifiers and title challengers. The gap between 7th and 3rd is currently 11 points but there is a further gap of 13 points between 3rd and 1st. That`s one hell of a gap to make up, and the problem is that the very best teams will always attract top players so the odds are they will be able at the very least to match, and possibly exceed, the quality of the additions being made to those teams immediately below them.

    • Noo Noo...sory Im not a stats man but far as I know from what Ive read Kenny was our most "winning" manager ever by ratio of games a manager was in charge for in other words time at the club.
      We have lads on the board who are great believers in stats and its true Kenny started off really well with us in his second coming and had a poor second half to the season which never the less culminated in two days out to Wembley...so we must have been winning plenty of games in 2nd half of season evenif they were Cup competition games...unlike this season theres no danger of that happening again Now then.... if we are believers in stats what difference does it make if the results in Prem we had in first half of season had been had in second half of season and vice versa...the stats would still tell the same story ...right ? Thing is if u look at it from the standpoint of the fans who enjoyed a couple days out at end of season to Wembley thanks to Kennys management then overall hecouldnt have had that bad a season but was denied a second full season to see how his signings worked out. I believe we would have done equally as well under the tutelage of Kenny this season as we have done under Rogers...but then the truth of that statement wont be known until end of season eh ? I do hope Im WRONG btw and we grab 4th spot !

    • This is my very slanted view on progress in a nutshell. In 2006 David Moores, a son of Liverpool, sold LFC 'cos he believed that he had taken the Club as far as he could, and we needed a financial benefactor to provide fresh investment so as to enable us to attract the best players and compete at the highest level. Foreign Carpetbaggers and asset-strippers Hicks and Gillette bought the Club with our money and by 2010 had nearly bankrupted us. American businessmen John Henry and FSG took us over and initially allowed the proceeds of the sale of Nando Torres to be used, maybe a little injudiciously, to bring in new players. The first full season did not pan out too well, so rather than allow a little time for things to settle, a new policy was formulated based on young "moneyball" players and staying within strict finacial limits. While we are doing this, other teams are not standing still, so to sum up progress, other than last years League Cup, we have not won anything of any significance since 2006 and still have insufficient "financial clout" to attract the best players and compete at the highest level. Most significantly in those 7 years, we have swapped a Liverpool lad, whose heart was in the Club and who knew and understood football, for a financial organisation with no heart or feeling for the Club and little or no understanding of the game of football other than "LFC" being a "World Brand". Is this a measure of progress for a fan? You tell me.

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