Puck Daddy Power Rankings: Dan Carcillo, Winter Classic whining, and blowing up Leafs

[Author's note: Power rankings are usually three things: Bad, wrong, and boring. You typically know just as well as the authors which teams won what games against who and what it all means, so our moving the Red Wings up four spots or whatever really doesn't tell you anything you didn't know. Who's hot, who's not, who cares? For this reason, we're doing a power ranking of things that are usually not teams. You'll see what I mean.]

6. Employing Dan Carcillo

Dan Carcillo has played 421 career games, which isn't a bad number for a guy who's only 29 years old.

Dan Carcillo has also faced supplementary discipline 12 different times in his career, whether that was a fine or a suspension. Nine of them were the latter. That's an incident that rises to the level of requiring supplementary discipline every 35 games or so. And that is an insane number for someone of any age.

And let's not make any mistake here, Carcillo's incident with Mathieu Perrault this past weekend was an indefensible one. Good hard crosscheck right to the arm that put his opponent on the shelf for a currently indefinite period of time, but it could be a week or two. Maybe more. And given this guy's history, the fact that he only got six games seems like it was kind of light (and some people said it would have only been a fine had Perrault not gotten injured). You'll recall that his last suspension was only about seven months ago, when he got 10 games from the NHL, and later had that number reduced to six, because he took a couple little swings at a linesman. And in 2011-12 he got two games for hitting Joni Pitkanen from behind, then seven more about two months later for boarding Tom Gilbert.

The list goes on and on but the point is that is racking up three suspensions in the six-or-seven-games range at multiple points in about a three-year period, maybe you just shouldn't be allowed in the league any more, or should at least have the book thrown at you a lot harder than it has been.

Greg's argument yesterday that teams — even smart teams — keep employing him for some talismanic purpose related to Jam or Toughness is understandable but smart teams do stupid things all the time in the pursuit of “intangibles.” Because any actually smart team would see that it doesn't matter the quality of competition he faces or how easy his minutes are: He's almost always detrimental to the team in terms of driving possession, and because they end up having to kill his dumbass penalties. The good news is that when he gets suspended, as he inevitably will, the team gets to call up someone who might actually be good at hockey to take his place.

So let's go down the checklist on Carcillo: 1) You know he's going to try to put someone in the hospital about twice a season on average. 2) He sucks at hockey. 3) He takes up a roster spot a team like Chicago could use for say, I dunno, Teuvo Teravainen.

What he provides to the team — that physical, unpredictable element — is dramatically outweighed by the problems he poses. This is why he only got a training camp invite this summer, and this is why it would be shocking to see him get a real contract again next summer.

Yeah, a million years ago Gretzky said Carcillo can score. But in his career he has the same number of points per game (0.24) as Aaron Asham, Zach Boychuk, Tim Kennedy, and Drew Miller, and fewer than Jesse Winchester and Zack Smith. In the NHL, you basically can get 0.24 points per game by accident. So his offensive production, such as it is, doesn't really make him any sort of difference-maker.

He's a bad hockey player and a worse actor in terms of his physical play on the ice. You can at least make the argument that Raffi Torres was, at some point, a decent penalty killer or whatever. (And by the way, shouldn't Chicago be more sensitive about employing this kind of dirtbag considering that Torres pretty clearly tried to end Marian Hossa's career?)

Hockey is a physical sport and guys cross the line all the time. That's why supplementary discipline exists. But with that having been said, when a guy cannot help himself from crossing that line multiple times per season, someone has to step up and say no more.

Either DOPS needs to get its act together and actually suspend this guy for a long enough period of time that he might actually stop doing this — don't be so horribly afraid of the appeals process, guys — or teams need to stop employing him. Let him ply his trade in the AHL, where his relative level of hockey talent might lead him to actually play hockey instead of trying to hurt the guys who can.

5. Whining about the Winter Classic

To the surprise of no one, it came out this week that the Boston Bruins will be awarded next year's Winter Classic, probably against Montreal, and almost certainly at Gillette Stadium.

In the wake of this scoop, there was, to the surprise of no one, a lot of complaining out of Minnesota about, “Why don't we get a Winter Classic?” It's becoming as big an NHL tradition as the Winter Classic itself.

Here's why the Wild don't get a Winter Classic, and it's really simple: They did a Blackhawks/Capitals Winter Classic this year. That game had Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, two of the most recognizable stars in the sport. It had Alex Ovechkin, one the game's biggest talents. It had two teams that had already been in Winter Classics and driven ratings. It had two teams that are playing really well this year, and which are generally fun to watch. And nobody tuned in.

Maybe you say it's the lack of a real rivalry between the teams, or maybe you say the NHL burned everyone out on outdoor games by having 500 of them last season. Maybe you say that the national audience just doesn't care about the Capitals in the way it does, say, the Penguins.

Now let's think long and hard about including the Wild in such a game:

• The Wild boring to watch.

• The Wild's biggest stars are Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, who aren't exactly bring-you-out-of-your-seat guys.

• The Wild aren't anyone's primary rival.

• The Wild have no national following.

• The Wild are awful this year.

Pretty strong combination of “reasons to never let that team host a Winter Classic.” Sure you're the State of Hockey, but there are 49 other ones for the league to think about, guys.

4. Losing Pekka Rinne

So the Nashville Predators have been one of the best teams in hockey for a while here, but now that they've lost Pekka Rinne (he of the .931 save percentage in 37 games), that is very much in question.

Their situation goes from being one in which the Preds looked like they could cruise to a playoff spot if Rinne kept it up to the Preds hoping they built themselves enough of a pad to cover their asses while he's out of the lineup.

It's not that Carter Hutton is even necessarily a terrible goaltender — his .892 save percentage comes because he allowed three goals on four shots on the second night of starting both games in a back-to-back, because before that he was a .907 goalie this season until that point, and he went .910 in 40 games last year — but the dropoff from “guaranteed Vezina winner” to “slightly below average goaltender” is massive. The Preds needed Rinne to be excellent to build what is admittedly an outstanding 29-9-4 record prior to his injury. If they can go .500 while he's out of the lineup for another week or three, they should remain in a good position to make the playoffs with a comfortable spot near the top of their division.

But if the goalscoring (which helped bail out an awful defensive performance last Friday) dries up, and the possession numbers continue to dwindle (and they have been for a while), things had the potential to get uglier even with Rinne and his league-best goaltending playing almost every night. Now they could become catastrophic in a hurry.

3. Blowing up the Leafs

Well the Leafs are awful again even after Randy Carlyle was fired. Doesn't matter that it's because they're getting .901 goaltending and only shooting 3.1 percent. They've lost six of the seven they've played sans Carlyle, including each of the last five, in which they've scored but two goals. People don't care about a 932 PDO because all they see is the losing.

People also don't care that in these seven games, most of which were against some very good teams, the Leafs have a 49.4 percent corsi. That's up from 44.6 percent this season under Carlyle. The implication that this team is improving but just not getting the bounces is also not what anyone in Toronto wants to hear, because they didn't lose like this even when they played badly for Carlyle (who enjoyed a 101.6 PDO).

Even the smart people in Toronto, those who see the progress being made under Peter Horachek and see past the impossibly bad luck, are now actively wondering what, exactly, the goal is for the Leafs. Like, the best-case scenario is they keep losing like this and get a high draft pick and get started on their rebuild in earnest; they still have to clear out a glut of terrible contracts by any means necessary and shepherd along some of the decent young players in their system, and that's a period that takes years.

And by the end of it, what have you got? Phil Kessel is likely to be in his early 30s by the time the Leafs are realistically capable of being legitimate competitors in the Eastern Conference. Dion Phaneuf as well. Joffrey Lupul will probably be close to retirement. James van Riemsdyk and Jake Gardiner will be in their late and mid-20s, respectively. Jonathan Bernier will be pushing 30, James Reimer will too.

There's really no telling what this team will look like both on paper and in terms of what its current core is capable of providing. What does Kessel's goalscoring ability amount to three or four years from now? Is Phaneuf even a second-pairing defenseman at that point? Everyone else could be in a similar boat.

And it will only be then that the Leafs are ready to compete for a Cup. And that's if literally everything about this mini-rebuild on which they seem to be embarking goes absolutely 100 percent right.

But the question is whether they can afford to blow it up, and what they could theoretically get back for Kessel or Phaneuf or, like, Tyler Bozak if they do decide to trade them. Would it be worth it? Would people in Toronto put up with it?

There are a lot of questions here and not very many good answers. I'm always of the opinion that if you're not one of the five or maybe eight best teams in the league you might as well be trying to get rid of any good players you have in the late 20s and beyond unless they're truly elite talents that are going to be difference-makers regardless of the degradation of their skill by time. You'd need a significant return, but who would help you along in that cause?

Hmmm......

2. Putting your foot in your mouth

Real quote from Craig MacTavish, strangely published on Twitter yesterday, basically apropos of nothing:

“We'd be willing to make a deal to get a younger player a little further along than an 18-year-old.”

This is inexplicable. I can't begin to understand it.

The Oilers are currently 29th in the league — tied with Buffalo at 31 points and actually holding fewer wins, but with a game in hand — and don't look like they're particularly likely to move up from that spot any time soon. This means that, at worst, they're going to be picking No. 3 in the draft, but have a decent shot at getting either Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel (if the standings stay where they are, it's a 13.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, plus 20 percent chance Buffalo does, meaning they still pick second). That's not necessarily great but it's better than just about anyone else. Either of those players in a year or three will probably be better than whatever the Oilers get in return.

Now, probably this is just MacTavish doing the whole Dale Tallon thing from last year: “Yeah we might trade the No. 1 pick” but what he really means is “Someone's gonna have to knock both our shoes and socks off, then light them on fire, before we trade the No. 1 pick.” Maybe it's just to get the conversation started and someone calls with an offer that helps the Oilers win in the near-term (i.e. while MacTavish is still employed) rather than five years from now when one of McDavid or Eichel is a bona fide All-Star No. 1 center. Those picks never get traded.

But maybe this is also the Oilers' having developed something of a phobia about drafting high and not having it work out for whatever reason. It's starting to look more and more like Nail Yakupov shouldn't have been drafted over Ryan Murray, but it's hardly Taylor Hall or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' fault that the Oilers can't get any goaltending or defense anywhere in this league. You can only hear so many, “Look at the Oilers, though,” anti-tanking arguments before it eats at your soul.

All this bizarre announcement does, in effect, is piss off Oilers fans even more if they see the team's management as being increasingly directionless. So why make it now?

Oh right, you're the Oilers and you can't avoid stepping in it.

1. Following the AHL's lead (hopefully)

Last week Greg looked at the numbers in the AHL and found that the shootout is being phased out pretty effectively by the league's use of 3-on-3 overtime. Which is great, because the shootout is stupid.

There's no secret that this was something of a test balloon floated by the NHL in a league that otherwise shares most of its rules, to see how viable it is. And at this point we basically have our answer: It's really viable and good. Now let's hope the NHL takes up that cause.

And while they're at it, let's try out a three-point win system in the AHL and see how that goes over.

(Not ranked this week: Martin Brodeur.

I cannot believe at all that Marty Brodeur is taking a leave of absence from the Blues. And I can't believe his save percentage this year was .899. These were shocking occurrences that no one could have seen coming.)